Analysis
Midterm history, 2018 to 2022
Three pieces built from county and precinct returns for the 2018 and 2022 midterms in the states with 2026 Senate battlegrounds, plus Pennsylvania: where the vote moved, which kinds of places moved it, and how to read the count on Nov. 3.
- Part 1
What 2018 and 2022 say to watch on Nov. 3, county by county
In 18 of 20 midterm races, larger counties tended to move further toward Democrats from 2018 to 2022. The counties to watch in each 2026 Senate battleground.
- Part 2
Which kinds of places moved between 2018 and 2022, and what to read on Nov. 3
Which kinds of places moved between the 2018 and 2022 midterms, measured against the rest of their states, and what to read in each 2026 battleground on Nov. 3.
- Part 3
Reading Tuesday's county counts against a tied race
The margin each large county would post in a tied 2026 race, and how far large counties strayed from their states between the 2018 and 2022 midterms.