Analysis
How Pennsylvania's 67 counties moved compared with the statewide shift
In unofficial returns, Josh Shapiro's margin grew 6.7 points from 2022, and 42 of Pennsylvania's 67 counties moved within 3 points of that statewide shift.
Before the polls closed on Nov. 3, Hesitation Media published a tied-race mark for each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties: the margin the county would post if the governor’s race ended even and every county moved by the same amount from 2022. In unofficial returns the Department of State posted at 8:25 a.m. on Nov. 4, Josh Shapiro (D) led Stacy Garrity (R) by 21.5 points, 6.7 more than his 14.8-point margin over Doug Mastriano in 2022. This page compares each county’s change since 2022 with that statewide change, which tests the same-amount assumption behind the marks.
Forty-two of the 67 counties shifted within 3 points of the statewide change, and 58 within 5. Weighted by votes cast, the average county landed 1.8 points from where an even statewide shift would have put it.
| County | Votes counted | Tied-race mark | 2022 | 2026 so far | Shift toward Shapiro | Versus the state’s shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allegheny | 515,996 | D+24.2 | D+39.0 | D+43.7 | 4.7 | −2.1 |
| Philadelphia | 471,879 | D+57.8 | D+72.6 | D+78.6 | 6.0 | −0.7 |
| Montgomery | 359,071 | D+25.0 | D+39.8 | D+45.9 | 6.1 | −0.6 |
| Bucks | 300,539 | D+5.1 | D+19.9 | D+25.6 | 5.7 | −1.0 |
| Delaware | 234,015 | D+22.4 | D+37.2 | D+45.9 | 8.7 | +2.0 |
| Chester | 229,775 | D+11.7 | D+26.4 | D+34.8 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| Lancaster | 214,500 | R+16.5 | R+1.7 | D+4.5 | 6.2 | −0.5 |
| York | 179,295 | R+22.8 | R+8.0 | R+1.4 | 6.6 | −0.2 |
| Westmoreland | 143,185 | R+21.1 | R+6.3 | R+2.6 | 3.7 | −3.1 |
| Berks | 142,857 | R+10.5 | D+4.2 | D+12.4 | 8.2 | +1.4 |
| Lehigh | 135,817 | D+4.7 | D+19.5 | D+29.0 | 9.5 | +2.8 |
| Northampton | 122,747 | R+1.4 | D+13.3 | D+23.4 | 10.1 | +3.3 |
Where the counties moved more than the state
Pike County shifted 13.9 points toward Shapiro, from a 16.0-point Republican margin in 2022 to 2.1 points, the largest shift in the state. Five of the seven largest shifts came in the northeast: Pike, Monroe (12.4), Northampton (10.1), Lehigh (9.5) and Carbon (9.1). Union (10.2) and McKean (9.2) are the other two. Of the four counties around Philadelphia, Delaware (8.7) and Chester (8.4) moved more than the state, and Montgomery (6.1) and Bucks (5.7) less.
Where they moved less
Of the eight counties that have counted at least 150,000 votes, Allegheny moved least, 4.7 points, 2.1 less than the state. Erie, which gave Shapiro a 21.4-point margin in 2022, shifted 2.5 points, and Westmoreland shifted 3.7.
What is still being counted
The 4,904,546 votes counted so far are 91 percent of the 2022 total. Thirteen counties have counted less than 85 percent of their 2022 vote. Mail ballots are 22.5 percent of the votes counted statewide and between 10 and 21 percent in 12 of those 13 counties; Montour has reported none. Montour’s 3.4-point shift toward Garrity, the only move toward the Republican of more than 2 points, rests on a count without them.
The 40 counties the American Communities Project classes as Rural Middle America or Working Class Country split by how far along their counts are. The 27 of them that have counted at least 85 percent of their 2022 vote shifted 5.5 points toward Shapiro, weighted by votes, and the 13 below that line shifted 3.5. The returns so far do not show whether uncounted ballots account for the gap.
Pike County, which voted for Mastriano by 16 points in 2022, has counted 24,146 votes so far, 987 fewer than it cast that year.
Changelog
- Published with unofficial returns posted at 8:25 a.m. ET. This piece updates as counties finish counting and again at certification.
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