Analysis
How Ohio's 88 counties moved compared with the statewide shift
Sherrod Brown's margin moved 11.0 points from the 2022 Senate race in unofficial returns, and 65 of Ohio's 88 counties moved within 3 points of that.
On Nov. 3, Hesitation Media published a tied-race mark for each of Ohio’s 88 counties: the margin the county would post if the Senate race ended even and every county moved by the same amount from the 2022 Senate race, which J.D. Vance (R) won over Tim Ryan (D) by 6.1 points. In unofficial returns the state posted at 6:18 a.m. on Nov. 4, Sherrod Brown (D) led Jon Husted (R) by 4.9 points in the special election, a shift of 11.0 points. The marks assumed that every county would move by about the same amount, and comparing each county’s change since 2022 with the statewide change tests that assumption.
Ohio’s counties tracked the statewide shift slightly more closely than Pennsylvania’s: 65 of the 88 shifted within 3 points of it, against 42 of 67 in Pennsylvania, and 81 within 5. Weighted by votes cast, the average county was 1.9 points from where an even statewide shift would have put it.
| County | Votes counted | Tied-race mark | 2022 | 2026 so far | Shift toward Brown | Versus the state’s shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin | 505,352 | D+38.6 | D+32.5 | D+42.1 | 9.6 | −1.3 |
| Cuyahoga | 475,488 | D+41.8 | D+35.6 | D+43.7 | 8.1 | −2.9 |
| Hamilton | 342,187 | D+21.6 | D+15.4 | D+25.3 | 9.9 | −1.1 |
| Summit | 225,274 | D+19.3 | D+13.2 | D+22.6 | 9.4 | −1.6 |
| Montgomery | 202,829 | D+7.8 | D+1.7 | D+15.0 | 13.3 | +2.3 |
| Lucas | 152,674 | D+25.6 | D+19.5 | D+25.7 | 6.2 | −4.7 |
| Butler | 146,581 | R+17.7 | R+23.8 | R+10.3 | 13.5 | +2.5 |
| Stark | 144,622 | R+9.7 | R+15.8 | R+5.3 | 10.5 | −0.5 |
| Lorain | 129,806 | D+8.5 | D+2.4 | D+11.2 | 8.8 | −2.1 |
| Delaware | 117,285 | R+0.2 | R+6.3 | D+4.5 | 10.8 | −0.2 |
| Warren | 113,087 | R+22.9 | R+29.0 | R+17.9 | 11.1 | +0.1 |
| Lake | 105,841 | R+2.1 | R+8.2 | D+1.6 | 9.8 | −1.1 |
Counties that changed sides
Seven counties that Vance carried in 2022 show Brown ahead: Delaware, Lake, Mahoning, Trumbull, Portage, Wood and Erie. In the Mahoning Valley, Mahoning moved from R+3.5 to D+7.2 and Trumbull from R+7.1 to D+2.6. Delaware, north of Columbus, moved from R+6.3 to D+4.5.
Where the counties moved more or less than the state
Lawrence County, on the Ohio River at the state’s southern tip, shifted 17.1 points toward Brown, the largest move in Ohio; it is still Republican, at R+28.1. Union and Fairfield, outside Columbus, moved 14.8 and 14.7 points. The smallest move was Ottawa’s, 3.2 points, and Lucas, which includes Toledo, moved 6.2, the least among the 12 counties with the most votes counted.
What is still being counted
The state marks these returns as unofficial and partial. In Harrison and Vinton, the county’s share of the 2026 statewide vote is less than 85 percent of its 2022 share, which can mean votes there are still outstanding.
Changelog
- Published with unofficial, partial returns the state posted at 6:18 a.m. ET Nov. 4. This piece updates as counties finish and again at certification.
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