Pennsylvania Senate District 14: Miller (D) v. Maldonado (R)

Number	What it is	Source
Harris +0.8	2024 presidential margin of Kamala Harris (D) in the district	Hesitation Media analysis of precinct returns
Miller +7.0	2022 margin of Nick Miller (D) over Dean Browning (R)	Pennsylvania Department of State
Shapiro +18.2	2022 margin of Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) in the district	Hesitation Media analysis of precinct returns
16 of 25	Senate seats on the ballot Democrats need for a majority; they hold 13, this one among them	Pennsylvania Department of State; Hesitation Media count of seats not on the ballot

If Democrats lose the 14th District, they will need to flip all four of the Republican Senate seats they are targeting, and hold the rest of their own, to win a majority.

Kamala Harris (D) carried the district by 0.8 points in 2024, the narrowest Harris win among the 13 Democratic-held Senate seats on the ballot, and Spotlight PA reported that Republicans are targeting it.

Sen. Nick Miller (D) won the seat in 2022, 46,444 votes to 40,360 over Dean Browning (R), as Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) carried the district by 18.2 points.

The candidates

Miller was elected to the Allentown School Board in 2019 and worked in project management at IBM before starting a small business, according to his profile on Branch, a nonpartisan voter guide.

Omy Maldonado (R) is a technology consultant who served eight years on active duty in the Marine Corps, according to his Branch profile. He has not held office.

The district

About two-thirds of the 2024 vote came from Lehigh County: part of the city of Allentown and part of South Whitehall Township; Hanover, Salisbury and Whitehall townships; and the boroughs of Catasauqua, Coplay, Emmaus and Fountain Hill.

The rest came from Northampton County: Allen, Bushkill, East Allen, Hanover, Lehigh and Moore townships and the boroughs of Bath, Chapman, North Catasauqua, Northampton and Walnutport.

Money

Armchair Lehigh Valley reported July 10 that Miller had raised $353,607 from Jan. 1 to June 8 and had amassed $646,693, while Maldonado had $1,194 in his account and $27,000 in polling and staff support from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee.

Hesitation Media found no public polls, advertising reports or filings later than June 8. A WITF and Spotlight PA review of party committee spending through Oct. 19 did not name this race.

Margins since 2022

Miller’s 2022 margin was 11.2 points below Shapiro’s in the district and 3.1 points below the margin of Sen. John Fetterman (D) in the U.S. Senate race. In 2024 the district voted 2.4 points more Democratic for Bob Casey (D), who lost his Senate seat that year, than for Harris. The count is on the Pennsylvania legislature results page.

The method and every source are under How we did this.

How we did this

Margins are Democrat minus Republican, in points.

The 2024 presidential, 2024 U.S. Senate, 2022 governor and 2022 U.S. Senate margins are Hesitation Media’s sums of MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct returns, with each precinct assigned to the Senate district it voted in for the 2022 state Senate race.

Municipalities are from the Department of State’s descriptions of the 2022 district lines. Branch profiles are written from candidate questionnaires and public records.

Passage	Figures	Source
Margins (chart, key numbers, body)	gov. D+18.19; U.S. Senate 2022 D+10.06; pres. D+0.85 (Harris 63,165, Trump 62,095, others 1,302); U.S. Senate 2024 D+3.22; Lehigh 65.3% of the 2024 vote	MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct returns, 2022 and 2024; Hesitation Media’s sums, swingdesk/pa_districts.py
2022 result	Miller 46,444, Browning 40,360	Pennsylvania Department of State, https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/
Narrowest Harris win among Democratic-held seats	the 13 Democratic-held seats on the ballot, by 2024 presidential margin; District 36, also Democratic-held, voted for Trump by 15.3 points	Hesitation Media’s sums, swingdesk/pa_districts.py
Republicans targeting the seat		Spotlight PA, Sept. 22, 2026, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2026/09/races-to-watch-pennsylvania-house-senate-2026-midterm-election-elections/
Miller’s background		Branch, accessed Nov. 3, 2026, https://branch.vote/races/2026-pennsylvania-general-election--pa-state-state-senator-pa-state-senate-14/candidates/nick-miller-1
Maldonado’s background	eight years	Branch, accessed Nov. 3, 2026, https://branch.vote/races/2026-pennsylvania-general-election--pa-state-state-senator-pa-state-senate-14/candidates/omy-maldonado
Miller and Maldonado money, through June 8	$353,607; $646,693; $1,194; $27,000	Armchair Lehigh Valley, July 10, 2026, https://armchairlehighvalley.substack.com/p/in-14th-miller-has-mammoth-size-edge
Committee spending	race not named	WITF and Spotlight PA, Nov. 1, 2026, https://www.witf.org/2026/11/01/democrats-caucus-committees-outspend-gop-counterparts-2-to-1-with-control-of-the-legislature-at-stake/
Municipalities		Pennsylvania Department of State, 2022 Pennsylvania Senate Districts, https://www.pa.gov/agencies/vote/resources/redistricting/pennsylvania-redistricting-state-senate