Pennsylvania Senate District 16: Coleman (R) v. Pinsley (D)

Number	What it is	Source
Trump +8.9	2024 presidential margin of Donald Trump (R) in the district	Hesitation Media analysis of precinct returns
Coleman +8.3	2022 margin of Coleman (R) over Pinsley (D)	Pennsylvania Department of State
Shapiro +7.0	2022 margin of Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) in the district	Hesitation Media analysis of precinct returns
Pinsley (D) 49, Coleman (R) 46	Poll, Oct. 10 to 14, 1,855 likely voters	State Navigate

Sen. Jarrett Coleman (R) beat Mark Pinsley (D) for the 16th District in 2022, 68,344 votes to 57,845. The two meet again Tuesday. Donald Trump (R) carried the district by 8.9 points in 2024, the widest margin among the four Republican seats that the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and Spotlight PA named as targets.

Republicans hold the Senate 27 to 23, WITF and Spotlight PA reported, so Democrats need three of those four, while holding their own seats, for a majority.

The candidates

Coleman is an airline pilot and former Parkland School Board member who ousted the longtime incumbent, Pat Browne (R), in 2022, Lehigh Valley Public Media reported.

PoliticsPA reported that Pinsley is an Army veteran, and Lehigh Valley Public Media reported that he is in his second term as Lehigh County controller. He was running for the 7th Congressional District when he started this campaign in February, and he beat Bradley Merkl-Gump (D), a Pennridge School Board member, in the May primary.

The district

About three-fifths of the 2024 vote came from Lehigh County: Upper and Lower Macungie, Upper Milford, Upper Saucon, part of South Whitehall, Macungie, Coopersburg, Slatington and two Allentown wards. The rest is upper Bucks County around Quakertown, Perkasie, Sellersville and Hilltown.

Republicans lead in registration by 11 points, PoliticsPA reported.

Money and issues

Coleman had $551,843 on hand in early May, Armchair Lehigh Valley reported, and Spotlight PA, in a report carried by Lehigh Valley Public Media, counted $426,000 for him from Operators for Skill PAC, the political arm of the skill-games developer Pace-o-Matic, and the same report said Coleman opposes any taxes on skill games.

The Senate Democrats’ campaign committee sent money to Pinsley between June 8 and Oct. 19, WITF and Spotlight PA reported; the report gives no amount.

Pinsley proposes a $22 minimum wage, property-tax relief and a moratorium on data centers until the Legislature passes laws to hold data center developers accountable, PoliticsPA reported. In the same preview, Coleman said he voted to end the gross receipts tax on electric bills.

What to watch

A State Navigate poll taken Oct. 10 to 14 had Pinsley at 49 and Coleman at 46, and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) ahead of state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) 56 to 40 in the same district.

In 2022 Coleman’s margin in the district was 15 points more Republican than the governor’s race. The count is on the Pennsylvania legislature results page.

The method and every source are under How we did this.

How we did this

Margins are Democrat minus Republican, in points.

The 2024 presidential, 2024 U.S. Senate, 2022 governor and 2022 U.S. Senate margins are Hesitation Media’s sums of MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct returns, with each precinct assigned to the Senate district it voted in for the 2022 state Senate race.

Passage	Figures	Source
Margins (chart, key numbers, body)	gov. D+7.02; U.S. Senate 2022 R+2.82; pres. R+8.94; U.S. Senate 2024 R+8.52; Lehigh 58.6% of the 2024 vote	MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct returns, 2022 and 2024; Hesitation Media’s sums, swingdesk/pa_districts.py
2022 result	Coleman 68,344, Pinsley 57,845	Pennsylvania Department of State, https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/
Candidates, registration, issues	11 points	PoliticsPA, Oct. 19, 2026, https://politicspa.com/2026-election-preview-16th-senate-district/154274/
Coleman’s and Pinsley’s backgrounds, Browne, Merkl-Gump, second term		Lehigh Valley Public Media, May 29, 2026, https://www.lehighvalleypublicmedia.org/elections/homefield-advantage-weighed-heavy-as-pinsley-won-democratic-primary-for-state-senates-16th-district
Coleman cash	$551,843	Armchair Lehigh Valley, May 15, 2026, https://armchairlehighvalley.substack.com/p/in-16th-merkl-gump-gets-195000-boost
Skill-games PAC	$426,000 (Spotlight PA’s count)	Lehigh Valley Public Media, May 29, 2026, https://www.lehighvalleypublicmedia.org/elections/homefield-advantage-weighed-heavy-as-pinsley-won-democratic-primary-for-state-senates-16th-district
Committee support for Pinsley		WITF and Spotlight PA, Nov. 1, 2026, https://www.witf.org/2026/11/01/democrats-caucus-committees-outspend-gop-counterparts-2-to-1-with-control-of-the-legislature-at-stake/
Poll	Pinsley 49, Coleman 46; Shapiro 56, Garrity 40; 1,855 likely voters, Oct. 10 to 14	State Navigate, https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/pa/sd-16-poll-october-2026/
Target seats	four Republican seats	Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, accessed Nov. 3, 2026, https://www.dlcc.org/state/pa; Spotlight PA, Sept. 22, 2026, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2026/09/races-to-watch-pennsylvania-house-senate-2026-midterm-election-elections/
Senate split	27 to 23	WITF and Spotlight PA, Nov. 1, 2026, https://www.witf.org/2026/11/01/democrats-caucus-committees-outspend-gop-counterparts-2-to-1-with-control-of-the-legislature-at-stake/
Municipalities		Pennsylvania Department of State, 2022 Pennsylvania Senate Districts, https://www.pa.gov/agencies/vote/resources/redistricting/pennsylvania-redistricting-state-senate