Analysis
Pennsylvania's targeted legislative districts, 2026
The 19 House and six Senate districts the DLCC or Spotlight PA named as 2026 targets, with each seat's 2024 presidential margin and the majority math.
| Number | What it is | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 103 to 100 | Democrats’ House majority before Election Day; 102 seats is a majority | Pennsylvania Department of State results |
| 27 to 23 | Republicans’ Senate majority before Election Day; 26 seats is a majority | Pennsylvania Department of State results |
| 16 of 25 | Senate seats on the ballot Democrats need for a majority; they hold 13 | Pennsylvania Department of State results |
| 6 | Democratic-held House targets that Trump carried in 2024 | Hesitation Media analysis of precinct returns |
Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take the Pennsylvania House, which Democrats hold 103 to 100. Democrats need a net gain of three to take the Senate, which Republicans hold 27 to 23, or two to tie it at 25.
All 203 House seats and 25 of the 50 Senate seats are on the ballot Tuesday. The 25 Senate seats not on the ballot are 15 Republican and 10 Democratic.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee lists 18 House and six Senate seats as its Pennsylvania targets. Hesitation Media added a 19th House seat, District 72 in Cambria County, from Spotlight PA’s report that House Democrats’ campaign committee had sent about $1.6 million to the incumbent, Rep. Frank Burns (D). A search by Hesitation Media found no district list from the Republican committees.
The Senate
Democrats hold 13 of the 25 Senate seats on the ballot and need 16 for a majority, or 15 for a tie. They are defending two seats, District 14 in Lehigh and Northampton counties and District 36 in Lancaster County, and trying to take four Republican seats that Donald Trump (R) carried by 2 to 9 points.
| District | Counties | Held by | Candidates | 2024 president |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lehigh, Northampton | D | Sen. Nick Miller (D) v. Omy Maldonado (R) | Harris +0.8 |
| 24 | Montgomery, Berks | R | Sen. Tracy Pennycuick (R) v. Chris Thomas (D) v. Mike Schonewolf (Green) | Trump +2.2 |
| 6 | Bucks | R | Sen. Frank Farry (R) v. Eileen Hartnett Albillar (D) | Trump +5.5 |
| 40 | Monroe, Lackawanna, Wayne | R | Sen. Rosemary Brown (R) v. Brian Wrightson (D) | Trump +7.1 |
| 16 | Lehigh, Bucks | R | Sen. Jarrett Coleman (R) v. Mark Pinsley (D) | Trump +8.9 |
| 36 | Lancaster | D | Sen. James Malone (D) v. Rep. Tom Jones (R) | Trump +15.3 |
Sen. James Malone (D) won District 36 by 526 votes in a March 2025 special election.
The House
Democrats hold 11 of the 19 House targets, and Donald Trump (R) carried six of those 11 by Hesitation Media’s count of the 2024 precinct returns, from District 144 in Bucks County, by 0.3 points, to District 72, by 31.3. Of the eight Republican-held targets, only District 160 in Delaware and Chester counties voted for Kamala Harris (D).
| District | County | Held by | Candidates | 2024 president |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | Bucks | D | Rep. Brian Munroe (D) v. Mike Murphy (R) | Trump +0.3 |
| 88 | Cumberland | R, open | Sara Agerton (D) v. Jeff Clark (R) | Trump +0.9 |
| 137 | Northampton | R | Rep. Joe Emrick (R) v. Jeff Warren (D) | Trump +0.9 |
| 121 | Luzerne | D, open | Jessica McClay (D) v. Mike Harostock (R) | Trump +1.7 |
| 3 | Erie | D | Rep. Ryan Bizzarro (D) v. Donna Reese (R) | Harris +2.0 |
| 18 | Bucks | R | Rep. K.C. Tomlinson (R) v. Bryan Allen (D) | Trump +3.3 |
| 142 | Bucks | R | Rep. Joe Hogan (R) v. Kristin Egan (D) | Trump +3.4 |
| 44 | Allegheny | R | Rep. Valerie Gaydos (R) v. Hadley Haas (D) | Trump +3.8 |
| 45 | Allegheny | D, open | Brittany Bloam (D) v. James Julius (R) | Harris +3.9 |
| 33 | Allegheny | D | Rep. Mandy Steele (D) v. Mike Hammill (R) | Harris +4.3 |
| 82 | Centre | D | Rep. Paul Takac (D) v. Kirsten McTernan (R) | Harris +4.3 |
| 41 | Lancaster | R | Rep. Brett Miller (R) v. Brad Chambers (D) | Trump +4.9 |
| 160 | Delaware, Chester | R | Rep. Craig Williams (R) v. Elizabeth Moro (D) | Harris +5.4 |
| 143 | Bucks | R | Rep. Shelby Labs (R) v. Tim Hayes (D) v. Chris Gambino (Forward Independent) | Trump +5.5 |
| 118 | Luzerne | D | Rep. Jim Haddock (D) v. John Lombardo (R) | Trump +7.5 |
| 16 | Beaver | D | Rep. Rob Matzie (D) v. John Costanza (R) | Trump +7.5 |
| 30 | Allegheny | D | Rep. Arvind Venkat (D) v. Libby Blackburn (R) | Harris +7.7 |
| 12 | Butler | D | Rep. Brandon Dukes (D) v. Scott Timko (R) | Trump +18.4 |
| 72 | Cambria | D | Rep. Frank Burns (D) v. Phil Rice (R) | Trump +31.3 |
Rep. Brandon Dukes (D) faces Scott Timko (R) again after beating him by 98 votes in an Aug. 18 special election, the result that gave Democrats their current 103 seats.
Results for every seat are on the Pennsylvania legislature results page, which refreshes every three minutes after polls close at 8 p.m.
How we did this
The target list is the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee’s Pennsylvania page, which lists 18 House and six Senate districts, plus House District 72 from Spotlight PA’s reporting. Ballotpedia reports that the Republican State Leadership Committee targets nine Pennsylvania House seats without naming them.
Candidates, incumbents, chamber standings and past legislative results come from the Department of State’s election results feed. A candidate who cross-filed is listed under the first party the feed gives.
The 2024 presidential margin in each district is Hesitation Media’s sum of the official 2024 precinct returns compiled by the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Each precinct is assigned to the House district under which its state House race was reported; the even-numbered Senate districts, which did not vote in 2024, use the 2022 precinct assignments.
Hesitation Media compared its margins with figures Spotlight PA and WHYY published for 20 districts; the only difference of more than a point is District 121.
For District 121, a WVIA report put Harris ahead by 61 votes; Hesitation Media’s precinct sum, whose House votes match the official 2024 result for the district exactly, has Trump ahead by 400.
| Passage | Figures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Target list | 18 House, 6 Senate | Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, Pennsylvania page, accessed Nov. 3, 2026, https://www.dlcc.org/state/pa |
| District 72 | about $1.6 million from House Democrats’ committee | Spotlight PA, Oct. 30, 2026, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2026/10/campaign-finance-pennsylvania-legislature-2026-election-transparency-elections/ |
| RSLC | nine House seats, unnamed | Ballotpedia News, Oct. 30, 2026, https://news.ballotpedia.org/?p=52076 |
| Chamber standings, holdovers, candidates, District 36 special (27,034 to 26,508), District 12 special (8,470 to 8,372) | Pennsylvania Department of State, https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ (elections 109, 119 and 117) | |
| 2024 presidential margins (chart, tables) | MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 precinct returns for Pennsylvania; Hesitation Media’s sums, swingdesk/pa_districts.py |
|
| District 121 | Harris by 61 | WVIA, Feb. 13, 2026, https://www.wvia.org/news/local/2026-02-13/with-pashinski-retiring-republicans-democrats-gear-up-for-stiff-121st-house-district-battle-in-luzerne-county |
Changelog
- Published.
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