Analysis
Pennsylvania Senate District 40: Brown (R) v. Wrightson (D)
Sen. Rosemary Brown (R) v. Brian Wrightson (D) in Monroe County and parts of Lackawanna and Wayne, where dozens of data centers are proposed.
| Number | What it is | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Trump +7.1 | 2024 presidential margin of Donald Trump (R) in the district | Hesitation Media analysis of precinct returns |
| Republican +10.5 | 2022 margin of Brown (R) over Jennifer Shukaitis (D) | Pennsylvania Department of State |
| Democrat +8.1 | 2022 margin of Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) in the district | Hesitation Media analysis of precinct returns |
| Brown (R) 47, Wrightson (D) 44 | State Navigate poll, September | Spotlight PA |
Sen. Rosemary Brown (R) won the 40th District in 2022 by 10.5 points as Josh Shapiro (D) carried it by 8.1 points in the governor’s race, and Donald Trump (R) carried it by 7.1 points in 2024.
It is one of four Republican-held seats Democrats are targeting, and Democrats need to win three of the four for a Senate majority.
The candidates
Brown, of Middle Smithfield Township, served in the state House from 2011 to 2022 before winning the Senate seat, according to PoliticsPA.
Brian Wrightson (D) lives in Archbald. He is a former Red Cross emergency services director for Lackawanna County and the Wyoming Valley and owns a technology infrastructure company, PoliticsPA and Spotlight PA reported.
The district
The district takes in all of Monroe County, which cast three-fifths of its 2024 vote, plus Lackawanna County communities from Olyphant and Jessup north through Archbald, Jermyn, Mayfield and Carbondale, and part of Wayne County that includes Honesdale.
Data centers and campaign money
Spotlight PA wrote that “perhaps no race better exemplifies the statewide focus on data centers”: dozens have been proposed in the district, most of them across six campuses in Archbald.
Spotlight PA reported that Wrightson wants new large-scale development banned and that Brown, who announced a package of limits in February but had not introduced it as of Aug. 20, backs a moratorium until communities are protected.
Brown took $5,000 from James Marzolino of Kriger Construction, whom Wrightson calls a data center developer, according to Spotlight PA. The Senate Democratic Campaign Committee sent money to Wrightson, WITF and Spotlight PA reported, without giving an amount.
What to watch
A September State Navigate poll had Brown at 47 and Wrightson at 44, Spotlight PA reported. In 2022, Brown’s margin in the district was 18.6 points more Republican than the margin in the governor’s race. The count is on the Pennsylvania legislature results page.
The method and every source are under How we did this.
How we did this
Margins are Democrat minus Republican, in points.
The 2024 presidential, 2024 U.S. Senate, 2022 governor and 2022 U.S. Senate margins are Hesitation Media’s sums of MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct returns, with each precinct assigned to the Senate district it voted in for the 2022 State Senate race.
PoliticsPA gives Trump’s 2024 margin in the district as 6 points; Hesitation Media’s precinct sum gives 7.1.
| Passage | Figures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Margins (chart, key numbers, body) | gov. D+8.10; U.S. Senate 2022 D+1.82; pres. R+7.11; U.S. Senate 2024 R+4.00; Monroe 60.4% of the 2024 vote | MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct returns, 2022 and 2024; Hesitation Media’s sums, swingdesk/pa_districts.py |
| 2022 result | Brown 53,795, Shukaitis 43,557 | Pennsylvania Department of State, https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ |
| Candidates | PoliticsPA, Oct. 22, 2026, https://politicspa.com/2026-election-preview-40th-senate-district/154388/ | |
| Data centers, Wrightson’s business, Kriger contribution | $5,000; six campuses | Spotlight PA, Aug. 21, 2026, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2026/08/data-center-midterm-legislative-elections-voters-shapiro-garrity-polls/ |
| Poll | Brown (R) 47, Wrightson (D) 44 | Spotlight PA, Sept. 22, 2026, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2026/09/races-to-watch-pennsylvania-house-senate-2026-midterm-election-elections/ |
| Committee support for Wrightson | WITF and Spotlight PA, Nov. 1, 2026, https://www.witf.org/2026/11/01/democrats-caucus-committees-outspend-gop-counterparts-2-to-1-with-control-of-the-legislature-at-stake/ | |
| Municipalities | Pennsylvania Department of State, 2022 Pennsylvania Senate Districts, https://www.pa.gov/agencies/vote/resources/redistricting/pennsylvania-redistricting-state-senate |
Changelog
- Published.
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