What Hobbs and Biggs each need in Arizona

Maricopa County cast 1,552,777 votes in Arizona’s 2022 governor’s race, 60.4 percent of the state, and gave Katie Hobbs a 2.4-point margin in a race she won by 0.7. If every county moves by the same number of points between that race and Tuesday’s, a tied race between Hobbs and Andy Biggs would show Maricopa at 1.8 points Democratic. A Maricopa count at 5 would put Hobbs ahead by about 3 statewide.

That uniform swing is an assumption, and the 2022 race was so close that each county’s tied-race margin sits within a point of its 2022 margin. The 14 counties outside Maricopa cast 39.6 percent of the vote. Arizona as a whole moved 14.8 points toward the Democrat between Doug Ducey’s 14.1-point win in 2018 and Hobbs’s 0.7 in 2022.

The state of the race

Hobbs is running for a second term. She was unopposed in the July 21 Democratic primary with 512,550 votes, according to Wikipedia’s page on the race. Biggs, a U.S. representative, won the Republican primary with 74.0 percent over David Schweikert’s 14.4, the page says. The RealClearPolling average of five polls taken July 26 to Oct. 28 has Hobbs at 50.2 and Biggs at 41.0. That is a lead of 9.2 points, on polls that span three months. RCP rates the race Leans Dem, moved from Toss Up on Aug. 13. The ratings table on the Wikipedia page lists Cook Political Report at Likely D as of Oct. 29. It lists Sabato’s Crystal Ball at Likely D as of Oct. 27 and Inside Elections at Tilt D as of Oct. 29. The four most recent polls listed there, from GrayHouse, Noble, HighGround and RedBox, run from Hobbs by 5 to Hobbs by 13.

What Hobbs needs

Maricopa and Pima together cast 75.9 percent of the 2022 vote. Pima gave Hobbs 21.1 points and sits at 20.5 in a tied race; at the RCP average it would be 29.7, and Maricopa 11.0. Coconino, 2.1 percent of the vote, gave her 25.7 and sits at 25.0. Maricopa moved 1.4 points further toward the Democrat than the state did between 2018 and 2022, and Pima 3.6. If the leans repeat, a Pima count near 20 would read as a Democrat slightly behind a tie. Coconino moved 3.4 points less than the state.

Apache and Santa Cruz counties, 1.0 and 0.5 percent of the vote, each gave Hobbs about 33 points in 2022. Both moved less toward the Democrat than the state did, Apache by 4.6 points and Santa Cruz by 8.5.

What Biggs needs

Biggs needs Maricopa under 1.8, and the rest of his path is the ring of counties around it. Pinal, 5.6 percent of the vote, went 16.5 points Republican in 2022 and sits at minus 17.1 in a tied race. Yavapai, 4.8 percent, sits at minus 28.7; Mohave, 3.2 percent, at minus 50.5; Cochise, 1.8 percent, at minus 18.4; Yuma, 1.8 percent, at minus 13.6. At the RCP average those counties come in at minus 7.9, minus 19.5, minus 41.3, minus 9.2 and minus 4.4. The seven counties outside the top eight cast 4.7 percent of the vote and gave Biggs’s party 4.6 points in 2022. They sit at minus 5.3 in a tied race and at 3.9 Democratic at the RCP average.

Yuma moved 16.6 points less toward the Democrat than the state did between 2018 and 2022, the largest gap among Arizona’s 15 counties. Mohave and Yavapai moved 4.5 and 4.1 points less. If those counties lag the state again, Biggs can post Yuma and Mohave margins past their tied-race numbers and still trail statewide.

The keys, read for this race

Key	This race
Incumbent party	Democratic; Gov. Katie Hobbs (Wikipedia).
Incumbent running	Yes. Hobbs seeks a second term (Wikipedia).
Contested incumbent-party primary	No. Hobbs was unopposed, 512,550 votes (Wikipedia).
Third party at 5 percent or more	No. RCP’s multi-candidate average of three polls, Aug. 10 to Oct. 8: No Labels nominee Teri Hourihan 2.0, Green nominee Risa Lombardo 1.3. The Green Party of Arizona disavowed Lombardo as a Republican plant, which she denies (Wikipedia).
Scandal	Alleged. Sunshine Residential Homes gave $200,000 to the state Democratic Party before the 2022 election, $100,000 to Hobbs’s inaugural fund and $100,000 to the party in August 2023, then received a state rate increase from $149 to $195 per bed. Hobbs denies involvement; the Department of Child Safety says then-director David Lujan approved the increase. Attorney General Kris Mayes declined to bring charges on Aug. 21, 2026, saying in a statement that the investigation “has not uncovered any evidence of the necessary quid pro quo to support a bribery charge” (AP via PBS NewsHour). A review by Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell and the state Auditor General remains open (PBS NewsHour), and Senate Republicans issued subpoenas on Sept. 16 (Arizona Capitol Times).
Social unrest	January 2026 protests after the Minneapolis killings, up to about 2,000 at the Capitol by the Department of Public Safety’s estimate (Arizona Mirror); a march on the ICE Phoenix field office after federal raids on 15 Zipps Sports Grill locations on Jan. 26 (Fox 10 Phoenix). No National Guard deployment for protests found.
Major policy change	An $18.3 billion FY2027 budget, SB 1847, signed June 13, 2026, with about $1.4 billion in tax cuts, conformity to the 2025 federal tax law, $45 million for child care and a three-year moratorium on data-center tax credits (Arizona Mirror, KJZZ).

Allan Lichtman built the keys for presidential elections, and The National reported on Nov. 2, 2026, that he did not use them for his midterm forecast. This table describes the race and does not forecast it.

After 9 p.m.

Polls close at 9 p.m. ET. On the live county tracker, read Maricopa first, against 1.8, then Pima against 20.5 and Pinal against minus 17.1. In 2022 the margin in Maricopa, 2.4 points, was larger than the margin in the state.

Notes and sources

Margins are the Democrat’s share minus the Republican’s, in points. The tied-race margin is the county’s 2022 margin minus the statewide 2022 margin of 0.66; the margin at the RCP average adds the 9.2-point lead to the tied-race margin. The 2018-to-2022 lean is how much further toward the Democrat the county moved than the state did between the two governor’s races.

Passage	Figures	Source
Keys: Lichtman	Keys built for presidential elections; not used for his 2026 midterm forecast	The National, Nov. 2, 2026, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/11/02/midterm-election-prediction-lichtman-sayed/ (opened Nov. 2; the article says he did not use the keys for the midterms and does not quote him saying they do not apply)
Opening and county margins	Maricopa 1,552,777 votes, 60.4 percent, 2.42, 1.75, 10.95; Pima 15.54 percent, 21.12, 20.45, 29.65; Pinal 5.61 percent, minus 16.47, minus 17.13, minus 7.93; Yavapai 4.79 percent, minus 28.69, minus 19.49; Mohave 3.18 percent, minus 50.52, minus 41.32; Coconino 2.13 percent, 25.69, 25.02; Cochise 1.82 percent, minus 18.41, minus 9.21; Yuma 1.8 percent, minus 13.6, minus 4.4; Apache 1.04 percent, 33.24; Santa Cruz 0.51 percent, 33.15; other 7 counties 4.7 percent, minus 4.6, minus 5.3, 3.9	race-paths/data/packets/AZ-GOV.csv, AZ-GOV.md
Leans	Maricopa 1.36, Pima 3.59, Coconino minus 3.38, Apache minus 4.6, Santa Cruz minus 8.49, Yuma minus 16.62, Mohave minus 4.51, Yavapai minus 4.12	AZ-GOV.csv, column lean_2018_2022
Statewide benchmarks	2022 margin 0.66; 2018 margin minus 14.14; shift 14.8	race-paths/data/packets/summary.csv
RCP average and rating	Hobbs 9.2, 5 polls, 7/26 to 10/28, Leans Dem; Hobbs 50.2, Biggs 41.0; moved from Toss Up Aug. 13	race-paths/data/rcp_2026-11-02.csv; reporting file, AZ Gov item 8, realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/arizona/hobbs-vs-biggs
Other ratings and recent polls	Cook Likely D Oct. 29, Sabato Likely D Oct. 27, Inside Elections Tilt D Oct. 29; GrayHouse 50-45, Noble 51-45, HighGround 52-39, RedBox 47-42	Reporting file, AZ Gov item 8, via en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_gubernatorial_election (Cook’s site returned 403)
Incumbent, primaries	Hobbs second term; 512,550 votes, unopposed; Biggs 74.0, Schweikert 14.4	Reporting file, AZ Gov items 1 and 2, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_gubernatorial_election (certified totals not checked against the secretary of state)
Third parties	Hourihan 2.0, Lombardo 1.3; Green Party disavowal	Reporting file, AZ Gov item 3, realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/arizona/multi-candidate; Wikipedia page above
Scandal	Sunshine Residential Homes donations and rate increase; Mayes declined charges Aug. 21, quotation from the AP story on PBS NewsHour (opened Nov. 2; the Axios page returned 403); Mitchell and Auditor General review; Senate subpoenas Sept. 16	Reporting file, AZ Gov item 4, pbs.org/newshour/politics/arizona-ag-declines-to-charge-gov-katie-hobbs-over-pay-to-play-allegations; axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/21/attorney-general-kris-mayes-clears-katie-hobbs-bribery-investigation; azcapitoltimes.com/news/2026/09/16/senate-republicans-launch-probe-over-hobbs-pay-to-play-allegations/
Unrest	About 2,000 at the Capitol; Zipps raids Jan. 26	Reporting file, AZ Gov item 5, azmirror.com/2026/01/30/arizona-ice-protest-thousands-march-against-trumps-violent-deportation-campaign/; fox10phoenix.com/news/ice-out-arizona-protests-escalate-after-federal-agents-raid-phoenix-sports-bars
Policy	SB 1847, $18.3 billion, June 13, 2026	Reporting file, AZ Gov item 6, azmirror.com/2026/06/13/hobbs-signs-18-3b-arizona-budget-calling-trump-conforming-tax-cuts-a-historic-win/; kjzz.org/politics/2026-06-15/gov-katie-hobbs-signs-18-3-billion-state-budget-into-law