What Shapiro and Garrity each need in Pennsylvania

Bucks County cast 5.9 percent of Pennsylvania’s vote in the 2022 governor’s race. It gave Josh Shapiro a 19.9-point margin in a year he won the state by 14.8. If every county moves by the same number of points between that race and Tuesday’s, a tied race would put Bucks at 5.1 points Democratic. The RealClearPolitics average of five polls taken Sept. 15 to Oct. 18 has Shapiro 23.8 points ahead of Stacy Garrity. At that margin Bucks would come in near 28.9.

Shapiro, first elected in 2022 with 56.5 percent, is running for a second term with Austin Davis. Garrity, the state treasurer, runs with Jason Richey, and Libertarian Ken Krawchuk is also on the ballot, according to the Wikipedia race page’s results box. RealClearPolitics rates the race Safe Democratic, and The Cook Political Report moved it to Solid Democratic on March 11, 2026. Quinnipiac’s Oct. 1 to 5 poll of 1,159 likely voters had Shapiro near 60 percent and Garrity at 34, City & State PA reported. The same poll put Shapiro’s job approval at 63 percent.

What Shapiro needs

The tied-race margin assumes a uniform swing: every county moves from its 2022 governor’s margin by the same number of points. Eight counties cast 50.6 percent of the 2022 vote, and six of them gave Shapiro margins of 19.9 points or more. In a tied race Philadelphia, 9.3 percent of the vote, would show 57.8 points Democratic after 72.6 in 2022. Allegheny, 10.7 percent, would show 24.2 after 39.0, and Montgomery, 7.7 percent, 25.0 after 39.8. Delaware, 4.7 percent, would show 22.4 after 37.2; Chester, 4.8 percent, 11.7 after 26.4; and Bucks 5.1 after 19.9.

At the RCP average, every one of the eight runs Democratic, with Lancaster at 7.3 and York at 1.0. The 59 counties outside the top eight run 2.9 points Democratic together at that margin, after a 6.1-point Republican margin in 2022. Shapiro’s side of the map would then hold 22 counties with 77.2 percent of the vote.

The 2018-to-2022 lean column records how much further toward the Democrat a county moved than the state did between the two governor’s races. It runs positive in seven of the eight, with Montgomery at 6.4, Allegheny 5.1, Delaware 4.9, Chester 4.5, Bucks 3.7, Lancaster 3.7 and York 3.3. Philadelphia is the exception at 0.9 points the other way. That is one pair of elections and not a forecast. Where it repeats, the suburban counties would sit above their tied-race margins while Philadelphia sits a point under.

What Garrity needs

A tied race is 23.8 points from the RCP average, and the county table describes the distance. In a tied race the 59 counties outside the top eight, 49.4 percent of the vote, would run 20.9 points Republican, from 6.1 in 2022. Lancaster, 4.2 percent of the vote, would go from 1.7 points Republican to 16.5. York, 3.5 percent, would go from 8.0 to 22.8, and Westmoreland, 3.1 percent, from 6.3 to 21.1.

Six counties that voted for Shapiro in 2022 would cross to the Republican side in a tied race. Berks, 2.9 percent of the vote, would go from 4.2 points Democratic to 10.5 Republican, and Northampton, 2.4 percent, from 13.3 Democratic to 1.4 Republican. Luzerne, 2.2 percent, would go from 1.1 Democratic to 13.7 Republican, and Cumberland, also 2.2 percent, from 7.8 Democratic to 7.0 Republican. Beaver, 1.4 percent, would go from 2.9 Democratic to 11.9 Republican, and Monroe, 1.1 percent, from 10.9 Democratic to 3.9 Republican. With those crossings, the Republican side of a tied-race map holds 56 counties with 47.6 percent of the vote. The Democratic side holds 11 counties with 52.4 percent, after holding 17 counties with 64.5 percent in 2022.

Lehigh, 2.5 percent of the vote, would sit at 4.7 points Democratic in a tied race, and Centre, 1.2 percent, at 2.1. With Northampton and Monroe, those are the four counties within 5 points of even.

The keys, read for this race

Key	Reading for this race
Incumbent party	Democratic. Shapiro, D, first elected 2022 with 56.5 percent (Wikipedia race page).
Incumbent running	Yes. Shapiro launched his reelection bid in January 2026 (6abc).
Contested incumbent-party primary	No. Shapiro was unopposed in the May 19, 2026, primary, 1,116,960 votes, 100 percent; Garrity was unopposed on the Republican side, 641,534 votes (Pennsylvania returns as cited on the Wikipedia race page).
Third party at 5 percent or more	No poll found at 5 percent. Libertarian Krawchuk polls 2 to 3 percent (Wikipedia race page; a Quinnipiac 2 percent figure came from a search summary and does not appear in the City & State PA article). Commonwealth Court ordered the Green Party candidates off the ballot for a signature shortfall (Wikipedia race page).
Scandal	Spotlight PA reported Oct. 15, 2023, in a story WHYY republished, that a former subordinate accused Mike Vereb, Shapiro’s legislative liaison, of sexual harassment and retaliation, and that a settlement was reached weeks before Vereb resigned in late September 2023. The governor’s office neither confirmed nor denied the settlement, and two former staffers named in the complaint told Spotlight PA they disputed the woman’s account. The article reports no response from Vereb and no finding by any body. The matter dates to 2023. No 2025 to 2026 investigation of Shapiro or his administration was located; the search was not exhaustive.
Social unrest	June 10, 2025, Philadelphia anti-ICE protest: about 150 people, 15 arrests, two officers lightly injured (CBS Philadelphia). Hundreds marched in Philadelphia in January 2026 after the Minneapolis shootings, with a City Hall rally Jan. 26 (WHYY). No National Guard deployment to Pennsylvania was found, and nothing was located for February to October 2026.
Major policy change	The FY2025-26 budget, $50.1 billion, the first over $50 billion, was signed Nov. 12, 2025, after an impasse of about 134 days that left Pennsylvania the last state to finish; House 156-47, Senate 40-9; it reportedly included leaving RGGI (PoliticsPA; Philadelphia Inquirer, both snippets).

Allan Lichtman built the 13 keys to forecast presidential races. He did not use them for his 2026 midterm forecasts, The National reported Nov. 2, 2026. This table describes the race and does not forecast it.

Where to look after 8 p.m.

The live county table at hesitation.media/election/#counties shows each county’s count against its tied-race margin. Read Bucks and Northampton first. Bucks sits at 5.1 in a tied race and 28.9 at the RCP average, and Northampton at 1.4 Republican in a tied race and 22.4 Democratic at the average. Then read Lancaster and York, and after them the rest-of-state line, at 20.9 Republican in a tied race and 2.9 Democratic at the average. Tied-race margins describe a county’s complete count. A partial count can sit well away from them when the ballots counted first lean differently from the rest.

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Notes and sources

Margins are the Democrat’s share of the vote minus the Republican’s, in percentage points. A plus sign means the Democrat led. The tied-race margin is the county’s 2022 governor’s margin minus the statewide 2022 margin (14.77 points Democratic, 5,365,929 votes). The margin at the RCP average adds 23.8 points to the tied-race margin. The 2018-to-2022 lean is the county’s shift between the two governor’s races minus the state’s (2018 statewide margin 17.07). Results come from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct returns, added up by county; the tied-race figures are Hesitation Media’s analysis.

Passage	Figures	Source
Bucks opening	share 5.85; 2022 margin +19.86; tied +5.08; at the average +28.88	race-paths/data/packets/PA-GOV.csv
RCP average and rating	Shapiro +23.8; 5 polls; Sept. 15 to Oct. 18; Safe Dem	race-paths/data/rcp_2026-11-02.csv (race 8860)
Cook rating; Quinnipiac	Solid D from March 11, 2026; Quinnipiac Oct. 1 to 5, 1,159 LV, near 60 to 34, approval 63%	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, PA sections 3 and 8: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/pennsylvania-governor/shapiro-strong-shape-pennsylvania-governor-shifts-solid (snippet); https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/10/quinnipiac-poll-shapiro-garrity-race-looks-rout/416473/ (read in full)
Nominees	Shapiro/Davis, Garrity/Richey, Krawchuk; 56.5% in 2022	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, PA section 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election (wikitext); https://6abc.com/post/josh-shapiro-run-2nd-term-pennsylvania-governor-trailed-talk-2028-white-house-bid/18371897/ (snippet)
Top eight counties and leans	shares, margins and 2018-22 leans as printed in the packet table	race-paths/data/packets/PA-GOV.md
Westmoreland, Berks, Northampton, Luzerne, Cumberland, Beaver, Monroe, Lehigh, Centre	Westmoreland 3.13%, -6.34, -21.11; Berks 2.89%, +4.24, -10.53; Northampton 2.42%, +13.349, -1.42, +22.38; Luzerne 2.16%, +1.10, -13.68; Cumberland 2.16%, +7.79, -6.98; Beaver 1.37%, +2.92, -11.85; Monroe 1.10%, +10.89, -3.88; Lehigh 2.54%, +4.68; Centre 1.16%, +2.08	race-paths/data/packets/PA-GOV.csv
County counts by side	tied race: 11 counties D with 52.4% of the vote (52.446), 56 R with 47.6%; 2022: 17 D with 64.5% (64.54); at the average: 22 D with 77.2%	computed from race-paths/data/packets/PA-GOV.csv
Rest of state	59 counties; 49.4%; 2022 -6.1; tied -20.9; at the average +2.9	race-paths/data/packets/PA-GOV.md
Primary	Shapiro 1,116,960, 100%; Garrity 641,534, 100%; May 19, 2026	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, PA section 2: Wikipedia race page (wikitext)
Third parties	Krawchuk 2 to 3%; Greens removed by Commonwealth Court	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, PA section 3: Wikipedia race page (wikitext)
Vereb matter	Spotlight PA via WHYY, Oct. 15, 2023: accusation, settlement before late September 2023 resignation, governor’s office response, staffers’ dispute; amount not stated in the article	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, PA section 4: https://whyy.org/articles/pennsylvania-josh-shapiro-mike-vereb-sexual-harassment-settlement (read in full)
Unrest	June 10, 2025: about 150 people, 15 arrests, 2 officers injured; January 2026 marches, Jan. 26 rally	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, PA section 5: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/philadelphia/news/ice-protest-philadelphia-donald-trump (read in full); https://whyy.org/articles/ice-protest-philadelphia-alex-pretti/ (snippet)
Budget	$50.1B; Nov. 12, 2025; about 134 days; 156-47 and 40-9; RGGI	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, PA section 6: https://politicspa.com/pennsylvania-general-assembly-agrees-to-50-1b-budget-for-fy26/144949/; https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/pennsylvania-state-budget-deal-impasse-ends-20251112.html (both snippets)
Lichtman	keys built for presidential races; not used for his 2026 midterm forecasts	https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/11/02/midterm-election-prediction-lichtman-sayed/ (The National, Cody Combs, Nov. 2, 2026, read in full)
Chart	six largest counties, 2022, tied, and RCP-average margins	race-paths/charts/PA-GOV.png