What Crowley and Tiffany each need in Wisconsin

Waukesha County cast 8.5 percent of Wisconsin’s vote in the 2022 governor’s race. It gave the Republican a 20.3-point margin in a year Tony Evers won the state by 3.4. If every county moves by the same number of points between that race and Tuesday’s, a tied race would put Waukesha at 23.7 points Republican. The RealClearPolitics average of four polls taken Aug. 12 to Oct. 23 has David Crowley 4.5 points ahead of Tom Tiffany. At that margin Waukesha would come in near 19.2 Republican.

The office is open. Evers, a Democrat, said on July 24, 2025, that he would not seek a third term, according to the Wikipedia race page, which cites the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The page calls it the first open governor’s race in Wisconsin since 2010. Crowley is the Milwaukee County executive, and Tiffany is a U.S. representative. RealClearPolitics rates the race a Toss Up, moved from Leans Democratic on Oct. 29. The Cook Political Report had it at Lean Democratic as of Oct. 29, per the Wikipedia ratings table. Marquette’s Oct. 14 to 22 poll of likely voters had Crowley 51, Tiffany 44, with 4 percent undecided, FOX6 reported.

What Crowley needs

The tied-race margin assumes a uniform swing: every county moves from its 2022 governor’s margin by the same number of points. Milwaukee, 13.1 percent of the 2022 vote, gave Evers 42.8 points and would show 39.4 in a tied race and 43.9 at the RCP average. Dane, 11.3 percent, gave him 57.9 and would show 54.5 in a tied race and 59.0 at the average. Together they cast 24.4 percent of the vote. In a tied race the Democratic side of the map holds 15 counties with 37.3 percent of the vote. At the average it holds 18 counties with 40.8 percent.

The 2018-to-2022 lean column records how much further toward the Democrat a county moved than the state did between the two governor’s races. It is 5.5 for Milwaukee and 4.4 for Dane. Where that repeats, both counties would sit above their tied-race margins in a tied race, and the gap would have to come from somewhere else on the map. That lean is one pair of elections, and this piece does not treat it as a forecast.

Rock County, 2.5 percent of the vote, gave Evers 16.9 points and would show 13.5 in a tied race, with a lean that ran 4.1 points against the Democrat. La Crosse, 2.1 percent, would show 14.4 after 17.8.

What Tiffany needs

The 64 counties outside the top eight cast 50.9 percent of the 2022 vote and gave the Republican a 10.6-point margin. In a tied race they would run 14.0 points Republican, and at the RCP average 9.5. The Republican side of a tied-race map holds 57 counties with 62.7 percent of the vote.

Among the eight largest counties, Waukesha is the one the lean column changes most. Its 2022 margin, 20.3 points Republican, came after a move of 11.0 points further toward the Democrat than the state’s between 2018 and 2022. That is the largest lean in the top eight, and a tied race by uniform swing puts Waukesha at 23.7 Republican. If the lean repeated, Waukesha would land near 12.7 Republican in a tied race, and the Republican margin would have to come from the other counties. Washington County, 2.8 percent of the vote, would run 41.3 points Republican in a tied race after 37.9 in 2022. Its lean was 5.5.

Four of the five Middle Suburbs counties in the top eight finished within about 7 points of even in 2022, and each runs Republican in a tied race. Brown (4.3 percent of the vote) sits at 7.9 and Outagamie (3.2 percent) at 10.4. Racine (3.1 percent) sits at 8.4 and Winnebago (2.8 percent) at 4.4. Winnebago is the only one of the eight that crosses sides between a tied race and the RCP average, from 4.4 Republican to 0.1 Democratic. Racine’s lean ran 2.5 points against the Democrat. Kenosha’s, at 2.5 percent of the vote and 4.8 Republican in a tied race, ran 8.0 against.

The keys, read for this race

Key	Reading for this race
Incumbent party	Democratic. Evers, D, holds the office (Wikipedia race page).
Incumbent running	No. Evers announced July 24, 2025, that he would not seek a third term (Wikipedia race page, citing the Journal Sentinel).
Contested incumbent-party primary	Yes. In the Aug. 11, 2026, Democratic primary Crowley took 315,413 votes, 39.81 percent, to Francesca Hong’s 311,740, 39.35 percent, with Kelda Roys at 7.50 and Joel Brennan at 4.68 (Wisconsin Elections Commission canvass as cited on the Wikipedia race page). The AP called it about 2:30 a.m. CDT Aug. 12 (FOX6). Crowley said July 8 that he was dropping out of the race (WSAW) and reentered the primary July 18, after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez left the race; the AP reported that Rodriguez had fired her campaign manager after finding the campaign had “hundreds of thousands of dollars less on hand than expected” (AP via PBS NewsHour). Tiffany took 95.32 percent on the Republican side.
Third party at 5 percent or more	None. The Wikipedia results box lists Crowley, Tiffany and write-in only as of Nov. 1; the certified ballot was not checked against the Wisconsin Elections Commission. No poll found any third-party or independent candidate at 5 percent.
Scandal	NBC News reported, and FOX6 confirmed on July 22, 2026, that an X account from about 2010 with crude, racially charged posts was linked to Crowley; his campaign said 10 to 12 people had access and he did not write the posts, and Crowley condemned the language. No finding.
Social unrest	Jan. 28, 2026, Milwaukee anti-ICE rally, more than 1,000 people, no arrests reported (Urban Milwaukee). ICE surge June 29 to July 1, 2026, about 57 arrests statewide, protests at Kosciuszko Park (Wisconsin Examiner). Madison: a July 22, 2026, police shooting killed Corey Ruiz, 38; police said he injured an officer with a knife; protests at the Capitol continued into early August, and police said demonstrators set a series of fires in the street overnight Aug. 4 to 5 near the shooting site (FOX6, Aug. 5); the state Division of Criminal Investigation is investigating and four officers were placed on leave (FOX6). No National Guard deployment was found.
Major policy change	The 2025-27 budget, $111 billion, signed July 3, 2025: a $1.3 billion Republican-drafted tax cut, the sales tax removed from residential electric bills, the hospital assessment raised from 1.8 to 6 percent to draw federal Medicaid match, the largest University of Wisconsin increase in nearly two decades; Senate 19-14, Assembly 59-39 (WISN).

Allan Lichtman built the 13 keys to forecast presidential races, and he did not use them for his 2026 midterm forecasts, The National reported Nov. 2, 2026. This table describes the race and does not forecast it.

Where to look after 9 p.m.

The live county table at hesitation.media/election/#counties shows each county’s count against its tied-race margin. Read Waukesha (23.7 Republican in a tied race, 19.2 at the RCP average) and Brown (7.9 Republican in a tied race, 3.4 Republican at the average) first. Then read Winnebago (4.4 Republican in a tied race, 0.1 Democratic at the average), then Milwaukee (39.4) and Dane (54.5). Tied-race margins describe a county’s complete count. A partial count can sit well away from them when the ballots counted first lean differently from the rest.

Crowley won the August primary by 3,673 votes out of 627,153 cast for the top two.

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Notes and sources

Margins are the Democrat’s share of the vote minus the Republican’s, in percentage points. A plus sign means the Democrat led. The tied-race margin is the county’s 2022 governor’s margin minus the statewide 2022 margin (3.40 points Democratic, 2,656,386 votes). The margin at the RCP average adds 4.5 points to the tied-race margin. The 2018-to-2022 lean is the county’s shift between the two governor’s races minus the state’s (2018 statewide margin 1.09). Results come from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct returns, added up by county; the tied-race figures are Hesitation Media’s analysis.

Passage	Figures	Source
Waukesha opening	share 8.46; 2022 margin -20.32; tied -23.72; at the average -19.22; lean +11.00	race-paths/data/packets/WI-GOV.csv
RCP average and rating	Crowley +4.5; 4 polls; Aug. 12 to Oct. 23; Toss Up	race-paths/data/rcp_2026-11-02.csv (race 9105)
Rating moves; Marquette	RCP Toss Up from Leans Dem effective Oct. 29; Cook Lean D as of Oct. 29; Marquette Oct. 14 to 22, 51 to 44, 4% undecided	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, WI sections 3 and 8: rcp-polls connector; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wisconsin_gubernatorial_election (wikitext); https://www.fox6now.com/news/marquette-poll-102826 (read in full)
Open seat; nominees	Evers announcement July 24, 2025; first open race since 2010; Crowley and Tiffany offices	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, WI section 1: Wikipedia race page (wikitext), citing https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/24/wisconsin-democratic-gov-tony-evers-wont-seek-re-election-in-2026/84246291007/ (not opened)
Top eight counties and leans	shares, margins and 2018-22 leans as printed in the packet table; Milwaukee plus Dane 24.4%	race-paths/data/packets/WI-GOV.md
Rock, La Crosse, Kenosha	Rock 2.46%, +16.90, +13.51, lean -4.10; La Crosse 2.08%, +17.75, +14.36; Kenosha 2.49%, -1.35, -4.75, lean -8.02	race-paths/data/packets/WI-GOV.csv
County counts by side	tied race: 15 counties D with 37.3% of the vote (37.255), 57 R with 62.7%; at the average: 18 D with 40.8%	computed from race-paths/data/packets/WI-GOV.csv
Waukesha if the lean repeats	-23.72 + 11.00 = -12.72	computed from race-paths/data/packets/WI-GOV.csv, same method as the series’ “tied-race margin if the lean repeats” column
Rest of state	64 counties; 50.9%; 2022 -10.6; tied -14.0; at the average -9.5	race-paths/data/packets/WI-GOV.md
Primary	Crowley 315,413, 39.81%; Hong 311,740, 39.35%; Roys 7.50; Brennan 4.68; Tiffany 95.32%; AP call; Crowley withdrawal July 8 and re-entry July 18; Rodriguez campaign cash shortfall	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, WI section 2: Wikipedia race page (wikitext, citing the WEC canvass); https://fox6now.com/news/wisconsin-governor-race-democratic-primary-081126 (read in full); withdrawal: WSAW, July 8, 2026, https://www.wsaw.com/2026/07/08/milwaukee-county-executive-david-crowley-drops-out-wisconsin-governors-race/ (opened Nov. 2); re-entry and Rodriguez: AP, Meg Kinnard, July 18, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/david-crowley-reenters-battleground-wisconsins-democratic-governor-primary-with-gov-evers-backing (opened Nov. 2). The Wisconsin Examiner’s July 18 story (https://www.wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/07/18/crowley-re-enters-governors-race-with-evers-endorsement/) returned 403 and is not relied on; the KSTP page previously cited returned 404, and its “campaign-finance filing problems” wording was not confirmed
Primary margin	315,413 minus 311,740 = 3,673; 315,413 plus 311,740 = 627,153	computed from the same figures
Third parties	ballot list as of Nov. 1; no poll at 5%	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, WI section 3: Wikipedia race page (wikitext); FOX6 Marquette story
X account	FOX6 July 22, 2026, with the campaign’s response	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, WI section 4: https://fox6now.com/news/david-crowley-linked-social-media-comments (read in full)
Unrest	Jan. 28, 2026 rally; June 29 to July 1 surge, about 57 arrests; July 22 Madison shooting and protests	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, WI section 5: https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2026/01/29/milwaukee-protesters-rally-against-ice/ (read in full); https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/07/07/nearly-60-people-arrested-by-ice-over-three-day-surge/; https://www.fox6now.com/news/madison-police-shooting-baldwin-williamson-072326 (snippets); street fires overnight Aug. 4 to 5, attributed to police: https://www.fox6now.com/news/madison-protests-unrest-street-fires.amp (FOX6, Aug. 5, 2026, opened Nov. 2)
Budget	$111B; July 3, 2025; $1.3B tax cut; 1.8 to 6%; 19-14 and 59-39	reporting/states-NC-PA-WI.md, WI section 6: https://www.wisn.com/article/wisconsin-gov-evers-signs-budget-early-thursday-morning/65283342 (read in full)
Lichtman	keys built for presidential races; not used for his 2026 midterm forecasts	https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/11/02/midterm-election-prediction-lichtman-sayed/ (The National, Cody Combs, Nov. 2, 2026, read in full)
Chart	six largest counties, 2022, tied, and RCP-average margins	race-paths/charts/WI-GOV.png