What El-Sayed and Rogers each need in Michigan

Ottawa County, west of Grand Rapids, went 18.0 points Republican in Michigan’s 2022 governor’s race while the state went 10.5 points Democratic. Suppose every county moves by the same number of points between that race and Tuesday’s Senate race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. A tied race would then show Ottawa at minus 28.5. An Ottawa count that stops near minus 20 would mean the Republican is running behind a tie.

The same uniform swing is an assumption, and it gives every county a tied-race margin: its 2022 margin minus the state’s. Michigan held no Senate race in 2022, so the benchmark is the governor’s race. Hesitation Media’s Nov. 2 piece “Reading Tuesday’s county counts against a tied race” worked through Kent, Oakland, Macomb and Wayne. In a tied race those four sit at minus 0.3, 12.6, minus 5.3 and 32.4. This one lays out the rest of each candidate’s path.

The state of the race

Gary Peters announced in January 2025 that he would not seek a third term, so the seat is open. El-Sayed, the former Wayne County health director, won the Aug. 4 Democratic primary with 48.45 percent to Haley Stevens’s 47.55, according to Wikipedia’s page on the race. The margin was about 14,000 votes out of 1,537,628. The page says about $62 million in outside spending supported Stevens, nearly $30 million of it from AIPAC-aligned groups. Rogers, the party’s 2024 nominee, had no primary opponent after Bernadette Smith was disqualified for insufficient signatures. The RealClearPolling average of 10 polls taken Oct. 15 to Nov. 1 has El-Sayed at 49.9 and Rogers at 44.9. That is a lead of 5.0 points, and RCP rates the race Toss Up. The ratings table on the Wikipedia page lists Cook Political Report at Lean D as of Nov. 2. It lists Sabato’s Crystal Ball at Lean D as of Oct. 29 and Inside Elections at Tilt D as of Oct. 29.

What El-Sayed needs

Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw, Genesee and Ingham cast 39.1 percent of the 2022 vote between them. All five sit on the Democratic side in a tied race: Wayne 32.4, Oakland 12.6, Washtenaw 41.0, Genesee 8.2, Ingham 29.4. At the RCP average those become 37.4, 17.6, 46.0, 13.2 and 34.4. Kalamazoo County, 2.6 percent of the vote, gave Whitmer 25.8 points and sits at 15.2 in a tied race, 20.2 at the RCP average. Kent at minus 0.3 and Macomb at minus 5.3 are where the Democratic column ends. At the RCP average Kent would be 4.7 for El-Sayed and Macomb 0.3 for Rogers.

Between the 2018 and 2022 governor’s races, the pair the Nov. 2 piece also measures, Kent moved 5.1 points further toward the Democrat than the state did. Oakland moved 5.2 points further, Kalamazoo 4.9 and Macomb 0.8, while Wayne moved 1.1 points less and Genesee 3.9 less. If those leans repeat, a Wayne margin near 31 would read as about even statewide, and an Oakland margin near 13 as a Democrat running behind a tie.

What Rogers needs

The 75 counties outside the top eight cast 42.3 percent of the 2022 vote and gave Tudor Dixon a 7.9-point edge. In a tied race that block lands at minus 18.4; at the RCP average it lands at minus 13.4. Ottawa at minus 28.5 and Livingston County at minus 23.4 are the two largest Republican counties. Livingston cast 2.4 percent of the vote and went minus 12.8 in 2022. Both counties moved further toward the Democrat than the state did last cycle, Ottawa by 4.6 points and Livingston by 3.3. Macomb at minus 5.3 and Kent at minus 0.3 are the large counties Rogers has to carry. Saginaw and Muskegon, together 3.5 percent of the vote, gave Whitmer 7.6 and 8.3 points and sit at minus 2.9 and minus 2.2 in a tied race.

The keys, read for this race

Key	This race
Incumbent party	Democratic; Sen. Gary Peters (Wikipedia).
Incumbent running	No. Peters announced in January 2025 he would not run (Wikipedia).
Contested incumbent-party primary	Yes. El-Sayed 48.45 percent, Stevens 47.55, margin about 14,000 votes; AP called the race for El-Sayed (Wikipedia, NPR).
Third party at 5 percent or more	No. RCP’s multi-candidate average of four polls, Oct. 21 to Nov. 1: Libertarian Lydia Christensen 2.0, U.S. Taxpayers Tim Long 0.7, Natural Law Walter Kristy 0.5, Green Douglas Marsh 0.3.
Scandal	No finding against either nominee in the reporting. A leaked donor-call remark about an “ogre on a pike,” which El-Sayed said referred to John Fetterman (Fox News); Wikipedia’s page on the race says the New York Times reported in October 2026 that dozens of social media bot accounts “had been paid by unknown sources” to post in support of Stevens, who lost the primary. At the state level, Attorney General Dana Nessel charged Whitmer appointee Fay Beydoun in May with 16 felonies over allegations that she used a $20 million state grant for personal expenses; WLNS reported no charge against Whitmer (WLNS, May 18, 2026).
Social unrest	Anti-ICE protests in January 2026 in Lansing, Grand Rapids, Traverse City, Ann Arbor and Detroit, one arrest, no National Guard (BridgeDetroit).
Major policy change	The seat is federal. In the state, an $81 billion FY2026 budget signed Oct. 7, 2025, after a brief shutdown, and a roads package Oct. 13, 2025 (9&10 News, Michigan Advance); the FY2027 budget signed July 21, 2026 (Whitmer’s office, Michigan Advance).

Allan Lichtman built the keys for presidential elections, and The National reported on Nov. 2, 2026, that he did not use them for his midterm forecast. This table describes the race and does not forecast it.

After 8 p.m.

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET in most of Michigan. On the live county tracker, read Kent, Macomb and Ottawa first, against minus 0.3, minus 5.3 and minus 28.5. The 75 counties outside the top eight cast 42.3 percent of Michigan’s vote in 2022 and gave the Republican 7.9 points.

Notes and sources

Margins are the Democrat’s share minus the Republican’s, in points. The tied-race margin is the county’s 2022 governor’s margin minus the statewide 2022 margin of 10.51; the margin at the RCP average adds the 5.0-point lead to the tied-race margin. The 2018-to-2022 lean is how much further toward the Democrat a county moved than the state did between the 2018 governor’s race (statewide 9.57) and the 2022 governor’s race, the same measure as “Reading Tuesday’s county counts against a tied race” (Kent 5.1 in both).

Passage	Figures	Source
Keys: Lichtman	Keys built for presidential elections; not used for his 2026 midterm forecast	The National, Nov. 2, 2026, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/11/02/midterm-election-prediction-lichtman-sayed/ (opened Nov. 2; the article says he did not use the keys for the midterms and does not quote him saying they do not apply)
Opening and county margins	Ottawa minus 18.03, minus 28.55, minus 23.55; Wayne 32.36, 37.36; Oakland 12.57, 17.57; Washtenaw 40.97, 45.97; Genesee 8.16, 13.16; Ingham 29.42, 34.42; Kalamazoo 2.61 percent, 25.75, 15.23, 20.23; Kent minus 0.26, 4.74; Macomb minus 5.30, minus 0.30; Livingston 2.43 percent, minus 12.84, minus 23.35; Saginaw 1.82 percent, 7.62, minus 2.89; Muskegon 1.65 percent, 8.33, minus 2.18; other 75 counties 42.3 percent, minus 7.9, minus 18.4, minus 13.4	race-paths/data/packets/MI-SEN.csv, MI-SEN.md
Leans	Governor 2018 to governor 2022: Kent 5.15, Oakland 5.17, Kalamazoo 4.92, Wayne minus 1.05, Genesee minus 3.95, Macomb 0.78, Ottawa 4.59, Livingston 3.29; Wayne tied plus lean 31.31, Oakland tied plus lean 17.74	MI-SEN.csv, column lean_2018_2022 (rebuilt Nov. 2 on the governor-to-governor basis)
Statewide benchmarks	2022 governor 10.51; 2018 governor 9.57	race-paths/data/packets/summary.csv, MI GOV row
RCP average and rating	El-Sayed 5.0, 10 polls, 10/15 to 11/1, Toss Up; El-Sayed 49.9, Rogers 44.9	race-paths/data/rcp_2026-11-02.csv; reporting file, MI Sen item 8, realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/michigan/rogers-vs-el-sayed
Other ratings	Cook Lean D Nov. 2, Sabato Lean D Oct. 29, Inside Elections Tilt D Oct. 29	Reporting file, MI Sen item 8, via en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan (Cook’s site returned 403)
Open seat, primaries	Peters January 2025; El-Sayed 744,952 (48.45 percent), Stevens 731,160 (47.55), total 1,537,628; $62 million, $30 million; Rogers 883,328, Smith disqualified	Reporting file, MI Sen items 1 and 2, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan; npr.org/2026/08/05/nx-s1-5920403
Third parties	Christensen 2.0, Long 0.7, Kristy 0.5, Marsh 0.3	Reporting file, MI Sen item 3, realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/michigan/el-sayed-vs-rogers-vs-christiansen-vs-long-vs-kristy-vs-marsh
Scandal	“ogre on a pike”; bot accounts “paid by unknown sources”; Beydoun charges, alleged personal use of the grant	Reporting file, MI Sen item 4 and MI Gov item 4; foxnews.com/politics/dem-senate-contender-explains-ogre-pike-remark-torched-own-party; Wikipedia page above (opened Nov. 2; the Times article itself was not opened); WLNS (Trevor King, May 18, 2026) via yahoo.com/news/articles/nesbitt-calls-doj-investigate-whitmer-165822088.html (opened Nov. 2)
Unrest	January 2026 protests, one arrest	Reporting file, MI Gov item 5, bridgedetroit.com/anti-ice-protests-stretch-across-michigan/
Policy	Budgets and roads package	Reporting file, MI Gov item 6, 9and10news.com (Oct. 7, 2025), michiganadvance.com (Oct. 13, 2025; July 21, 2026), michigan.gov/whitmer press release (July 21, 2026)