What Ossoff and Collins each need in Georgia

Cobb County gave Raphael Warnock a 16.3-point margin in Georgia’s November 2022 Senate race. He led that race by 1.0 point statewide before the December runoff. If every county moves by the same number of points between that race and Tuesday’s, a Cobb count near 15 points for Jon Ossoff would point to a tied race with Mike Collins. A Cobb count near 24 would match the polling average.

Ossoff is seeking a second term. The Wikipedia page for the race lists Rep. Mike Collins as the Republican nominee, with a Dec. 1 runoff if no candidate takes a majority. Ossoff leads by 8.2 points, 51.2 to 43.0, in the RealClearPolitics average of five polls taken Sept. 21 to Oct. 17. RCP moved the race from Leans Dem to Likely Dem on Oct. 25. The three most recent polls on the Wikipedia page have Ossoff ahead by 10, 7 and 15 points. Research Co. and InsiderAdvantage, both polling Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, found the 10- and 7-point leads, and Echelon found the 15 in a poll taken Oct. 16 to 23.

What Ossoff needs

Because Warnock’s November margin was 1.0 point, the tied-race margin for every county is its 2022 margin less one point. That uniform move is an assumption, used here because it gives each county one number to read against. Fulton, 10.6 percent of the 2022 vote, went +49.0 and would show +48.0 in a tied race. Cobb, 7.9 percent of the vote, went +16.3 and would show +15.3. Gwinnett, 7.6 percent, went +20.4 and would show +19.4, and DeKalb, also 7.6 percent, went +70.2 and would show +69.2. The four together cast a third of the state’s vote and gave Warnock 39.6 points.

At the RCP average, every county sits 8.2 points above its tied-race mark. Fulton would show +56.2, Cobb +23.5, Gwinnett +27.6 and DeKalb +77.4. The gap between a tied race and the average is the same 8.2 points in Cherokee and in Clayton, so the first counties to report can be read against both lines.

Between the 2018 and 2022 governor’s races, the suburban counties moved further toward the Democrat than the state did. Henry moved 14.1 points further, Forsyth 3.2, Cherokee 2.5, Gwinnett 2.2 and Cobb 1.1. DeKalb moved 1.2 further and Fulton 1.2 less. A Cobb count at +15.3 with Henry at its tied-race +28.4 reads as a tied race. If the suburbs repeat their last lean, the same statewide result shows up as Cobb near +16 and Henry near +42. That lean is one pair of elections and is not used here as a forecast.

What Collins needs

The 151 counties outside the eight largest cast 55.6 percent of the vote and gave the Republican a 20.9-point margin in November 2022. A tied race puts that margin at 21.9, and the RCP average puts it at 13.7. Collins wins only if the rest of the state comes in past 21.9 or the metro counties fall under their marks. The 8.2-point gap between those two lines is the size of the polling miss he needs.

The large Republican counties set the pace: Cherokee, 3.0 percent of the vote, went -38.3 and would show -39.3 in a tied race and -31.1 at the average. Forsyth, 2.6 percent, went -32.6, -33.5 and -25.3 on the same three readings, and Hall, 1.9 percent, went -44.4 and -45.4. Five counties switch sides between the tied race and the average, and Fayette, 1.5 percent of the vote, is the largest of them. It sits at -4.1 in a tied race and +4.1 at the average. Houston, also 1.5 percent, moves from -12.1 to -3.9 and stays Republican at both. A Fayette count for Collins is a sign the average overstated Ossoff.

The keys, read for this race

Allan Lichtman built his 13 keys for presidential elections, and The National reported on Nov. 2, 2026, that he did not use them for his midterm forecast. This table describes the race and does not forecast it.

Key	Finding	Source
Incumbent party	Democratic (Sen. Jon Ossoff)	Wikipedia
Incumbent running	Yes. Ossoff seeks a second term.	Wikipedia
Contested incumbent-party primary	No. Ossoff was unopposed on May 19 with 1,042,331 votes. On the Republican side, Collins took 40.5 percent in the first round and won the June 16 runoff 55.5 to 44.5 over Dooley.	Wikipedia
Third party at 5 percent or more	No. No Libertarian is on the ballot, and no third-party candidate was found polling at 5 percent.	AJC, WABE, RCP
Scandal	None found touching Ossoff. On the Republican side, the Associated Press reported in January 2026 that the Office of Congressional Conduct found “substantial reason to believe” that a woman hired as an intern in Collins’s district office, whom the AP identified as the girlfriend of his former chief of staff, Brandon Phillips, “did not perform duties commensurate with her compensation,” and that the House Ethics Committee was extending its review. Collins’s office called the complaint “bogus.” The AP reported no Ethics Committee finding.	Atlanta News First, AP
Social unrest	Aug. 2025: Gov. Brian Kemp ordered about 75 Georgia National Guard members to ICE administrative and logistics support, with Capitol protests. Jan. 2026: Atlanta protests on consecutive nights after the Minneapolis killing; a Feb. 1 march was described as peaceful.	Fox 5 Atlanta, Capital B, WRDW, CBS Atlanta
Major policy change	The seat is federal. State policy is Republican: Kemp signed HB 463 (income tax rate 5.19 to 4.99 percent) and SB 33 (homestead exemption) on May 11, 2026.	CBS Atlanta, governor’s office

Where to read first

Georgia’s polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and the live county tracker at hesitation.media/election/#counties shows each county against its tied-race margin as the count arrives. Read Cobb and Gwinnett first: Cobb at +15.3 in a tied race and +23.5 at the average, Gwinnett at +19.4 and +27.6. Then read Fayette, at -4.1 and +4.1, and Cherokee, at -39.3 and -31.1. A partial count can run well away from the benchmark when the ballots counted first lean differently from the rest.

Warnock’s 1.0-point November lead was about 37,800 votes of 3,935,924 cast.

Notes and sources

Uniform swing: the tied-race margin is the county’s 2022 margin minus the statewide 2022 margin (+0.96 points, Democrat minus Republican, across 3,935,924 votes in the November general election, not the runoff). The margin at the RCP average adds the average (+8.2) to the tied-race margin. The 2018-to-2022 lean is how much further toward the Democrat the county moved than the state did, from the 2018 and 2022 governor’s races. Returns are MIT Election Data and Science Lab precinct files added up by county; the arithmetic is Hesitation Media’s.

Passage	Figures	Source
Keys: Lichtman	Keys built for presidential elections; not used for his 2026 midterm forecast	The National, Nov. 2, 2026, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/11/02/midterm-election-prediction-lichtman-sayed/ (opened Nov. 2; the article says he did not use the keys for the midterms and does not quote him saying they do not apply)
Cobb opener	2022 +16.29, tied-race +15.33, at RCP +23.53; statewide +0.96	race-paths/data/packets/GA-SEN.csv, GA-SEN.md; Warnock’s November lead per the series piece “Reading Tuesday’s county counts against a tied race”
RCP average and rating	Ossoff 51.2, Collins 43.0, +8.2; 5 polls, 9/21 to 10/17; Likely Dem since 10/25	race-paths/data/rcp_2026-11-02.csv (race 8718); https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/georgia/ossoff-vs-collins
Incumbent, runoff date, late polls	Second term; Dec. 1 runoff; Research Co. 52-42, InsiderAdvantage 53-46, Echelon 55-40	reporting file; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia
Core counties	Fulton 10.62%, 48.98 to 48.02 to 56.22; Cobb 7.89%, 16.29 to 15.33 to 23.53; Gwinnett 7.57%, 20.35 to 19.40 to 27.60; DeKalb 7.56%, 70.17 to 69.21 to 77.41; combined 33.6%, 2022 +39.63	GA-SEN.csv, vote-weighted
Leans	Governor 2018 to governor 2022, as in the series piece “Reading Tuesday’s county counts against a tied race”: Henry +14.09, Forsyth +3.19, Cherokee +2.50, Gwinnett +2.17, Cobb +1.09, DeKalb +1.15, Fulton -1.21; Henry tied-race +28.38; Cobb tied plus lean = +16.4; Henry tied plus lean = +42.5	GA-SEN.csv, column lean_2018_2022 (rebuilt Nov. 2 on the governor-to-governor basis; values equal GA-GOV.csv)
Rest of state	151 counties, 55.6%; 2022 -20.9, tied -21.9, at RCP -13.7	GA-SEN.md
Republican counties	Cherokee 3.04%, -38.30, -39.26, -31.06; Forsyth 2.59%, -32.56, -33.51, -25.31; Hall 1.85%, -44.44, -45.40; Fayette 1.52%, -4.12 and +4.08; Houston 1.50%, -12.11 and -3.91	GA-SEN.csv
Closing vote count	0.96 percent of 3,935,924 = 37,785	GA-SEN.md
Keys: primary	Ossoff 1,042,331, 100.0%; Collins 40.5, Dooley 30.2, Carter 25.1; runoff 55.5 to 44.5	reporting file; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia
Keys: third party	Libertarians failed to qualify; no third-party candidate found at 5 percent	https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/07/libertarians-wont-be-on-the-ballot-in-georgia-meaning-likely-no-runoffs/ ; https://www.wabe.org/georgia-libertarians-end-efforts-to-get-on-2026-general-election-ballot/ ; RCP race 8718
Keys: scandal	No Ossoff ethics matter found; Office of Congressional Conduct report on Collins’s office, Ethics Committee review extended, Collins’s office response	https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2026/07/17/ossoff-kicks-off-rome-canvass-senate-race-sharpens-focus-trump-speech-collins-controversy/ ; AP, Jeff Amy, “Ethics watchdog: Top aide to Georgia’s Mike Collins improperly hired girlfriend as intern,” Jan. 6, 2026 (UTC), https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ethics-watchdog-top-aide-georgias-030300580.html (opened Nov. 2; the WABE page previously cited returned 403)
Keys: unrest	Guard order about 75; Capitol protests; Jan. and Feb. 1 2026 marches	https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/protesters-rally-georgia-capitol-against-national-guard-helping-ice ; https://atlanta.capitalbnews.org/atlanta-protesters-rally-against-national-guard/ ; https://www.wrdw.com/2026/01/08/georgia-activists-say-theyre-planning-more-protests-against-ice/ ; https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/protesters-to-rally-march-in-atlanta-against-ice-policies-and-civil-liberties-erosion/
Keys: policy	HB 463, SB 33	https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/kemp-signs-2-tax-cut-bills-delivering-savings-for-georgia-families-and-homeowners/ ; https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2026-03-03/gov-kemp-signs-amended-budget-provide-tax-relief-fund-georgia-dreams

The reporting file is Desktop/Journalism/keys-2026/reporting/states-AZ-GA-MI-NV.md, compiled Nov. 2, 2026; items marked there as search snippets were not opened in full.