Analysis
How each type of county moved from 2022 to 2026, in five states
In unofficial returns from five states, 502 of 507 counties moved toward the Democrat or Dan Osborn (I) from 2022 to 2026, and every type of county moved that way.
Across the 507 counties in the five states Hesitation Media has scored, 502 moved toward the Democrat, or in Nebraska toward the independent Dan Osborn (I), between 2022 and 2026. Every type of county moved in that direction. The middle county of Working Class Country and of Evangelical Hubs, two deeply Republican types, moved about as far as that of the African American South, 16 to 18 points in each, while the middle county of the Middle Suburbs and of Rural Middle America moved about half as far. Forty-three counties that voted Republican in 2022 voted for the Democrat or Osborn this year, and none went the other way.
The groups are the county types of the American Communities Project, which sorts every U.S. county into one of 15 types by income, race, religion, age and the kind of work people do. For each type, the “middle county” is the one where half the type’s votes were cast in counties more Democratic and half in counties more Republican. The change is the difference between a type’s middle margin in 2022 and in 2026, both weighted by 2026 votes, so it describes the type as a whole and not any one county.
Every type of county, middle county’s margin
| County type | Counties | States | Votes counted, 2026 | 2022 | 2026 | Change toward the Democrat, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hispanic Centers | 4 | Ga., Neb. | 44,596 | R+46.4 | R+13.2 | 33.2 |
| Urban Burbs | 19 | Pa., Ga., N.C., Ohio | 3,892,792 | D+19.5 | D+42.1 | 22.6 |
| Military Posts | 14 | Ga., N.C., Neb. | 510,185 | R+15.2 | D+4.4 | 19.6 |
| Native American Lands | 2 | N.C., Neb. | 31,048 | R+18.6 | R+0.6 | 18.0 |
| Working Class Country | 53 | Pa., Ga., N.C., Ohio, Neb. | 910,831 | R+38.4 | R+20.7 | 17.7 |
| Evangelical Hubs | 47 | Ga., N.C., Ohio | 539,252 | R+54.7 | R+38.0 | 16.7 |
| African American South | 85 | Ga., N.C. | 1,104,508 | D+11.2 | D+27.4 | 16.2 |
| Big Cities | 7 | Pa., Ga., N.C., Ohio, Neb. | 3,081,027 | D+32.5 | D+47.3 | 14.8 |
| Aging Farmlands | 53 | Ohio, Neb. | 87,665 | R+65.2 | R+53.6 | 11.6 |
| College Towns | 24 | Pa., Ga., N.C., Ohio, Neb. | 1,700,336 | D+13.2 | D+24.5 | 11.3 |
| Exurbs | 26 | Pa., Ga., N.C., Ohio, Neb. | 2,090,039 | R+6.3 | D+4.5 | 10.8 |
| Graying America | 34 | Pa., Ga., N.C., Ohio, Neb. | 447,296 | R+24.9 | R+15.0 | 9.9 |
| Rural Middle America | 118 | Pa., Ga., N.C., Ohio, Neb. | 2,305,564 | R+33.2 | R+24.3 | 8.9 |
| Middle Suburbs | 21 | Pa., Ga., N.C., Ohio | 1,878,305 | R+6.8 | D+1.6 | 8.4 |
Where the counties moved most
The four Hispanic Centers counties moved more than any others: Whitfield in Georgia, whose seat is Dalton, and Colfax, Dakota and Dawson in Nebraska each shifted 30 to 33 points toward the Democrat or Osborn, the four largest shifts of the 507. All four voted Republican in both years. The 19 Urban Burbs counties, populous suburban counties such as Montgomery in Pennsylvania, Cobb in Georgia and Guilford in North Carolina, moved 22.6 points, the most of any type with more than 10 counties.
Among the five types of more than 40 counties, the middle county moved most in Working Class Country and Evangelical Hubs, 17.7 and 16.7 points, leaving them at R+20.7 and R+38.0, and next most in the African American South, 16.2 points.
Where they moved least
The Middle Suburbs and Rural Middle America moved least, 8.4 and 8.9 points, and Graying America moved 9.9. The Exurbs moved 10.8. In the Middle Suburbs and the Exurbs, the middle county went from Republican by about 6 points to the Democratic side, D+1.6 and D+4.5. In Rural Middle America it stayed Republican, from R+33.2 to R+24.3.
Five counties moved toward the Republican: McPherson (6.2 points), Keya Paha (2.0) and Grant (0.4) in Nebraska, and Montour (3.4) and Cameron (1.8) in Pennsylvania. Montour had reported no mail ballots when these returns were pulled.
Limits of the comparison
Each state’s own races are compared, so a type of county found mostly in one state takes on that state’s swing. Pennsylvania’s comparison starts from Josh Shapiro’s (D) 14.8-point win for governor in 2022, and the state moved 6.7 points, against 17.0 in Georgia and 22.8 in North Carolina. Aging Farmlands is 52 Nebraska counties and one in Ohio, and the African American South is in Georgia and North Carolina only. Types with fewer than 20 counties are left off the chart and are in the table. Medians describe a type’s middle county; they do not show how many counties within a type moved, or by how much. Every 2026 figure is unofficial, and Pennsylvania had counted about 91 percent of its 2022 total when these returns were pulled.
Changelog
- Published with the unofficial county returns behind parts 1 to 5, pulled Nov. 4. This piece updates when those parts update.
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