Analysis
The 18 House Toss Ups, and what each side needs
Republicans hold 14 of the 18 House seats Hesitation Media rates Toss Up. Seven are open, and seven have new lines, so 2024 House results there come from old maps.
| Number | What it is | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 14 of 18 | Toss Up House seats held by Republicans; Democrats hold four | Hesitation Media ratings |
| 7 | Toss Up seats that are open, with no incumbent on the ballot | Hesitation Media ratings |
| 7 | Toss Up districts with new lines this year | Hesitation Media ratings |
| 2 | Toss Up districts Harris won in 2024, both narrowly | 2024 results by district |
Republicans hold 14 of the 18 House seats that Hesitation Media rates Toss Up, and Democrats hold four. Seven of the 18 are open, with no incumbent on the ballot. The ratings are Hesitation Media’s own; how they and the figures below were chosen is in “How we did this.”
The 18 at a glance
| District | Held by | Incumbent or open | 2024 president, current lines | Polls close (ET) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-6 | R | Open | Trump +15 | 6:00 | Barr is running for Senate; the only polls are from Democrats |
| VA-1 | R | Wittman | Trump +5 | 7:00 | Spanberger carried it with 51 percent in 2025 |
| SC-1 | R | Open | Trump +13 | 7:00 | Mace lost her governor primary; public polls are all partisan |
| FL-14 | D | Castor | Trump +10.5 (new lines) | 7:00 | New lines sit entirely in Hillsborough County |
| FL-22 | D | Open | Trump +10 or more (new lines) | 7:00 | Frankel moved to the 23rd; Republican registration edge about 8 points |
| NC-1 | D | Davis | Trump +11.6 (new lines) | 7:30 | Rematch with Buckhout; new lines moved Black Belt counties out |
| OH-7 | R | Miller | Trump +11 (new lines) | 7:30 | No nonpartisan public poll found |
| PA-1 | R | Fitzpatrick | Harris, narrowly (50-49 rounded) | 8:00 | Shapiro led 61 to 34 in the same district poll |
| MI-4 | R | Huizenga | Trump +6 | 8:00 | One poll, from a Democratic firm, sponsor not stated |
| MI-7 | R | Barrett | Trump +1 | 8:00 | No poll used |
| MI-10 | R | Open | Trump +6 | 8:00 | James is running for governor; no public poll found |
| TX-35 | D | Open | Trump about +10 (new lines) | 8:00 | Less than 10 percent of the old district remains |
| TX-15 | R | De La Cruz | Trump +18 (new lines) | 8:00 | Texas Southern University poll had Pulido ahead 51 to 44 |
| IA-2 | R | Open | Trump +10 | 9:00 | Hinson is running for Senate; no nonpartisan poll confirmed |
| NY-17 | R | Lawler | Harris +0.6 | 9:00 | One of the two Toss Ups Harris won |
| CO-5 | R | Crank | Trump +9 | 9:00 | Killin raised $5.6 million to Crank’s $2.9 million through Oct. 14 |
| MT-1 | R | Open | Trump +11 | 10:00 | Zinke retired; Tester carried it 50 to 49 in 2024 |
| CA-22 | R | Valadao | Trump +1.7 (new lines) | 11:00 | Proposition 50 lines; no nonpartisan public poll confirmed |
Only two of the 18 districts voted for Harris in 2024, and she won both narrowly.
Who is running
| District | Republican | Democrat |
|---|---|---|
| KY-6 | Ralph Alvarado | Zach Dembo |
| VA-1 | Rep. Rob Wittman | Shannon Taylor |
| SC-1 | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | Nancy Lacore |
| FL-14 | Mike Beltran | Rep. Kathy Castor |
| FL-22 | Casey Askar | Pia Dandiya |
| NC-1 | Laurie Buckhout | Rep. Don Davis |
| OH-7 | Rep. Max Miller | Brian Poindexter |
| PA-1 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | Bob Harvie |
| MI-4 | Rep. Bill Huizenga | Sean McCann |
| MI-7 | Rep. Tom Barrett | Will Lawrence |
| MI-10 | Michael Bouchard Jr. | Christina Hines |
| TX-35 | Carlos De La Cruz | Johnny Garcia |
| TX-15 | Rep. Monica De La Cruz | Bobby Pulido |
| IA-2 | Joe Mitchell | Lindsay James |
| NY-17 | Rep. Mike Lawler | Cait Conley |
| CO-5 | Rep. Jeff Crank | Jessica Killin |
| MT-1 | Aaron Flint | Sam Forstag |
| CA-22 | Rep. David Valadao | Randy Villegas |
The seven open seats
| District | Held by | Why it is open |
|---|---|---|
| KY-6 | R | Rep. Andy Barr is running for Senate |
| SC-1 | R | Nancy Mace ran for governor and lost her primary |
| FL-22 | D | Rep. Lois Frankel moved to the 23rd |
| MI-10 | R | Rep. John James is running for governor |
| TX-35 | D | Not given; less than 10 percent of the old district remains |
| IA-2 | R | Rep. Ashley Hinson is running for Senate |
| MT-1 | R | Rep. Ryan Zinke retired |
The seven districts with new lines
| District | 2024 president, new lines | Old lines | Whose count |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-22 | Trump +1.7 | Trump +5.8 | California Target Book |
| FL-14 | Trump +10.5 | Harris +7.7 | Tampa Bay 28 |
| FL-22 | Trump by more than 10 | Not given | Florida Phoenix |
| NC-1 | Trump +11.6, 55.4 to 43.8 | Not given | Ballotpedia |
| OH-7 | Trump +11, 55.1 to 44.1 | Not given | The Downballot |
| TX-15 | Trump +18, 58.5 to 40.7 | Not given | The Downballot |
| TX-35 | Trump about +10; less than 10 percent of the old district remains | Not given | Texas Public Radio |
The latest poll in each district
The polls left out are listed in “How we did this.”
| District | Pollster | Dates | Result | Sponsor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-6 | DCCC poll | October | Dembo 46, Alvarado 40 | DCCC |
| VA-1 | Washington Post/Schar School | Late September | Taylor 50, Wittman 46 | Washington Post |
| SC-1 | Public Policy Polling | Oct. 21 and 22 | Lacore 47, Honeycutt 45 | House Majority PAC |
| FL-14 | No nonpartisan public poll found | |||
| FL-22 | Impact Research | Aug. 24 to 31 | Dandiya 46, Askar 44 | House Majority PAC |
| NC-1 | RedBox Research, a Democratic firm | Oct. 20 to 23 | Davis 45, Buckhout 44 | A Fight Worth Having, a progressive super PAC |
| OH-7 | RedBox Research, a Democratic firm | Oct. 20 to 23 | Poindexter 46, Miller 42 | A Fight Worth Having |
| PA-1 | New York Times/Inquirer/Siena | Oct. 16 to 22 | Harvie 48, Fitzpatrick 46 | New York Times and The Inquirer |
| MI-4 | GBAO, a Democratic firm | Reported Sept. 25 | McCann 47, Huizenga 46 | Not stated |
| MI-7 | No poll used | |||
| MI-10 | No public poll found | |||
| TX-35 | Washington Post/Schar School | Oct. 14 to 19 | De La Cruz 48, Garcia 47 | Washington Post |
| TX-15 | Texas Southern University | Oct. 13 to 16 | Pulido 51, De La Cruz 44 | San Antonio Express-News |
| IA-2 | No nonpartisan public poll confirmed | |||
| NY-17 | Emerson/PIX11 | Sept. 27 to 29 | Conley 48, Lawler 46 | PIX11 |
| CO-5 | Global Strategy Group | Oct. 14 to 18 | Killin 46, Crank 44 | Killin campaign |
| MT-1 | No poll used | |||
| CA-22 | No nonpartisan public poll confirmed |
Money
| District | Figure | Who reported it |
|---|---|---|
| SC-1 | Outside groups spent about $11.5 million, most of it for Honeycutt | The Post and Courier |
| SC-1 | Lacore raised more than three times what Honeycutt did | The Post and Courier |
| NC-1 | Outside groups spent more than $20 million by mid-October | Roll Call |
| CO-5 | Killin raised $5.6 million through Oct. 14, Crank $2.9 million | Colorado Politics |
The electorate, where the piece has a figure
| District | Figure | Who reported it |
|---|---|---|
| FL-22 | Republican registration edge of about 8 points; backed Amendment 4 by about 20 points | Florida Phoenix; WLRN, citing Matt Isbell |
| MI-7 | Barrett lost Ingham County by about 40,000 votes in 2024 | American Communities Project |
| TX-35 | Population about 57 percent Hispanic | Texas Public Radio |
| NY-17 | Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 78,000 | City & State |
| CA-22 | About 100,000 unaffiliated voters; 16.7 percent of them voted in 2022 | The Fulcrum |
6 p.m. ET
KY-6 (Lexington). With Rep. Andy Barr running for Senate, Republican Ralph Alvarado faces Democrat Zach Dembo for the open seat. Trump carried the district 57 to 42 in 2024, a 15-point margin, and the only polls are from Democrats. Fox News said left-leaning college voters and farmers facing higher costs make the race close, Spectrum News reported.
7 p.m. ET
VA-1 (Richmond suburbs to the Northern Neck). Rep. Rob Wittman faces Democrat Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County prosecutor. Trump won it by 5 points in 2024, 52 to 47, and Abigail Spanberger carried it with 51 percent in the 2025 governor’s race, Virginia Mercury said.
SC-1 (Charleston coast). Nancy Mace ran for governor instead of reelection and lost that primary, and Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt now faces Democrat Nancy Lacore in a district Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Public polls are all partisan.
FL-14 (Tampa). Rep. Kathy Castor faces Republican Mike Beltran on new lines that sit entirely in Hillsborough County. Trump won the new district by 10.5 points in 2024, and Harris won the old one by 7.7.
Susan MacManus of USF said the race depends on reaching voters with no party affiliation, and Tampa Bay 28 said many voters in southern and eastern Hillsborough are new to Castor.
FL-22 (inland Palm Beach to Collier). Rep. Lois Frankel moved to the 23rd, leaving the Democratic-held seat open, and Democrat Pia Dandiya faces Republican Casey Askar.
Trump won the new district by more than 10 points in 2024, and Republicans hold about an 8-point registration edge. WLRN said the district has a large bloc of moderate voters and backed the abortion-rights Amendment 4 by about 20 points.
7:30 p.m. ET
NC-1 (northeast North Carolina). Rep. Don Davis faces Republican Laurie Buckhout in a rematch on new lines. Trump won the new district by 11.6 points in 2024, 55.4 to 43.8, according to Ballotpedia, and public polls are all partisan. Roll Call said the new lines moved rural Black Belt counties out of the seat.
OH-7 (Cleveland’s west suburbs to Ashland). Rep. Max Miller faces Democrat Brian Poindexter on new lines. The new lines voted 55.1 to 44.1 for Trump in 2024, an 11-point margin, and no nonpartisan public poll was found.
8 p.m. ET
PA-1 (Bucks County). Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces Democrat Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner. Harris narrowly won the district in 2024, 50 to 49 in Dave’s Redistricting’s rounded figures. The Inquirer said it expects some voters to split their tickets between Shapiro and Fitzpatrick, as Bucks voters did in 2022.
| NYT/Inquirer/Siena, PA-1, Oct. 16 to 22 | Result |
|---|---|
| House, all voters | Harvie 48, Fitzpatrick 46 |
| House, independents | 44 to 44 |
| Governor | Shapiro 61 to 34 |
MI-4 (southwest Michigan). Rep. Bill Huizenga faces Democrat Sean McCann, a state senator from Kalamazoo. Trump won the district by 6 points in 2024, 52 to 46. GBAO, a Democratic firm, had McCann 47, Huizenga 46 in a poll WKZO reported Sept. 25. WKZO did not say who paid for the poll.
MI-7 (Lansing). Rep. Tom Barrett faces Democrat Will Lawrence. Trump won the district by about 1 point in 2024, 50 to 49. The American Communities Project said Barrett lost Ingham County, home to Lansing and Michigan State, by about 40,000 votes in 2024, and asked whether younger and college-town voters turn out in a midterm.
MI-10 (Macomb and Oakland). Republican Michael Bouchard Jr. and Democrat Christina Hines are running for the seat Rep. John James is leaving to run for governor.
The district went 52 to 46 for Trump in 2024, a 6-point margin, and no public poll was found. Bouchard’s father is the longtime Oakland County sheriff, and Oakland University’s David Dulio told Michigan Public that known names carry a built-in advantage.
TX-35 (San Antonio). Open seat held by Democrats, with less than 10 percent of the old district remaining, Texas Public Radio said. Republican Carlos De La Cruz faces Democrat Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County sheriff’s deputy, in a district Trump won by about 10 points in 2024. TPR said the race tests whether Republicans keep Trump’s gains with Latino voters.
TX-15 (Rio Grande Valley north to Gonzales). Rep. Monica De La Cruz faces Democrat Bobby Pulido on new lines. On the new lines Trump led 58.5 to 40.7 in 2024, an 18-point margin. Texas Standard said Pulido is strongest along the border and De La Cruz in the ranch counties farther north, where turnout could offset Pulido’s border support.
9 p.m. ET
IA-2 (northeast Iowa). Rep. Ashley Hinson is running for Senate, and Republican Joe Mitchell faces Democrat Lindsay James, a state representative, for the open seat.
Trump’s 2024 margin here was 10 points, 54 to 44, and no nonpartisan public poll was confirmed. The Center Square said the candidates split over gas prices, tariffs, Medicaid and Affordable Care Act cuts and the Iran conflict.
NY-17 (Hudson Valley). Rep. Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley. Harris won the district by less than 1 point in 2024, 49.9 to 49.3. City & State said registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 78,000, and NOTUS said Conley needs independents and the Orthodox Jewish vote in Rockland County.
CO-5 (Colorado Springs). Rep. Jeff Crank faces Democrat Jessica Killin in a district that is nearly all El Paso County. Trump won it by 9 points in 2024, 53 to 44, and the only polls are Democratic.
10 p.m. ET
MT-1 (western Montana). After Rep. Ryan Zinke’s retirement, Republican Aaron Flint faces Democrat Sam Forstag. The district voted for Trump and for Jon Tester on the same 2024 ballot. Trump rallied in Kalispell on Oct. 14, and Forstag held a rally outside Bozeman the same night, the Daily Montanan said.
| MT-1, 2024 | Result |
|---|---|
| President | Trump by 11 points, 54 to 43 |
| Senate | Tester 50 to 49 |
11 p.m. ET
CA-22 (Bakersfield and Fresno). Rep. David Valadao faces Democrat Randy Villegas on lines redrawn under Proposition 50. Trump won the new district by 1.7 points in 2024, and no nonpartisan public poll was confirmed. The Fulcrum said about 100,000 unaffiliated voters decide it, and only 16.7 percent of them voted in the 2022 midterm.
Results post as they come in at hesitation.media/election.
How we did this
The ratings, holders, incumbents and poll-closing hours are Hesitation Media’s, from the election desk’s house file (election-night-2026/gtm/threads/house.json, key hm_seats).
Seven of the districts have new lines this year: CA-22, FL-14, FL-22, NC-1, OH-7, TX-15 and TX-35. In those seven, the 2024 presidential figure is the vote on the new lines, so last cycle’s House result describes a different district.
Polls listed only in RealClearPolling’s records with no other trace are left out: the Poll Vault/Emerson and USC/Dornsife rows for CA-22, FL-14, IA-2 and MI-7, the Poll Vault/Emerson Oct. 12 to 14 Montana row, and an Emerson Oct. 31 to Nov. 1 Montana poll listed only on Wikipedia.
Where a poll’s sponsor is a party committee or PAC, the tables say so.
TX-35: Ballotpedia News (May 27, 2026), Texas Public Radio (Oct. 4, 2026) and RealClearPolling’s race record all name the TX-35 Republican as Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz of TX-15.
Notes and sources
Changelog
- Published.
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